Before the cock crows

Recently, the respected British newsmagazine, 'The Economist' analysed the potentialities of the two main contenders in the 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria – Dr Jonathan (GEJ) and General Buhari (GMB).

The magazine was of the opinion that, given the prevailing circumstances in the country, particularly as they relate to the Boko Haram insurgency and institutionalised corruption, Buhari might be the better of two evils. The candidates, it observes, stand out distinctively as symbols of Nigeria's broken political system which makes all of the country's other problems even more intractable.

The main grips on GEJ are, in summary:
· Jonathan was unwilling to tackle institutionalised corruption

· The Central Bank Governor was sacked for daring to report a missing $20 billion

· Under Jonathan, about 18,000 Nigerians died as a result of Boko Haram insurgency; another 1.5 million were displaced from their ancestral homes

· Under Jonathan, schools were invaded with impunity by Boko Haram and students abducted or killed. The over 200 girls kidnapped from Chibok were yet to return to their families

· Under Jonathan, the value of the naira continued to depreciate, reaching a climax of N292 to the pound

· Under Jonathan, the oil wealth was not fairly well distributed

· Under Jonathan live span of an average Nigerian considerably depreciated

The searchlight then beamed on General Buhari who, the magazine said, had blood on his hand.

· Buhari is an ex-general who, three decades ago, came to power in a coup.

· His 18-month rule was nasty, brutish and mercifully short.

· His economics, known as “Buharism”, was destructive. Instead of letting the currency depreciate in the face of a trade deficit, he tried to fix prices and ban “unnecessary” imports.

· He expelled 700,000 migrants in the delusion that this would create jobs for Nigerians.

· He banned political meetings and free speech.

· He detained thousands, used secret tribunals and executed people for crimes that were not capital offences.

· He is said to be a strong advocate of Islamic laws but uses his driver and cook who hail from Eastern Nigeria as exalted slaves to showcase his tolerance for other religions.

That is so far for GMB. And now, back to Jonathan.
It is unfortunate that the many things Jonathan did not do seem now to overshadow the many things he did, and for which his regime would definitely be remembered. Perhaps, this is because of the nature of the man himself, known generally as soft and listening. Sometimes, it is difficult for such people to praise or even appraise themselves. They leave others to assess them and generally accept their verdict, no matter what it is.

But for the record, every Nigerian knew that historically, the power sector had been epileptic before Jonathan. Economists estimated that power outages cost Nigeria billions of pounds on importation of diesel for generators and in lost output. On 2 August 2010 Jonathan launched his 'Roadmap for Power Sector Reform'. Its primary objective was to achieve stable electricity in Nigeria. Jonathan oversaw the privatisation of the country's power sector, the end goal being an efficient and reliable power supply for the entire population. The Power Holding Company of Nigeria, which acted as the state electricity provider was broken up into 15 firms. Under Jonathan, Nigeria handed over control of state electricity assets to 15 private bidding companies.

On 11 October 2011, President Jonathan launched the Youth Enterprise with Innovation in Nigeria (YOUWIN) Initiative which was an innovative business plan competition that harnessed the creative energies of young people between the ages of 18 and 35. The YOUWIN Initiative met its target to create between 40,000 to 50,000 sustainable jobs by 2014.

In 2011, President Jonathan launched the Transformation Agenda. The Transformation Agenda epitomised the Federal Government's articulation on how to deliver projects, programmes, and key priority policies, from 2011 to 2015 coordinated by the National Planning Commission (NPC)

Under President Jonathan, Nigeria's foreign policy was reviewed to reflect a “citizen-focused” foreign policy designed to “accord the vision of defending the dignity of humanity the highest priority" and connect foreign policy to domestic policy while placing a greater emphasis on economic diplomacy.

The first Executive President of Nigeria Alhaji Shehu Shagari broke his silence after 32years of being overthrown by General Buhari in a rare interview with the African Independent Television in Sokoto. He said: “Jonathan may not be the best, but I can mention 3 to 4 breakthroughs in Nigeria that occurred under his 5 years in office. "

· Under Jonathan's administration, train is back in Nigeria after about 30yrs of neglect. In fact, my 27 years old grandchild boarded train for the first time in his life in 2014.

· His administration is the first government in Nigeria to construct over 125 modern Almajiri schools and 12 Universities in a short frame of time.

· He is the first Nigerian leader to construct Cargo Airports & ensure every zone in Nigeria has an international airport.

· His administration is also the first Nigerian government to eradicate the high level corruption in the distribution of fertilizer and payment of ghost workers

· His, is the first government to start diversifying Nigeria's economy back to Agriculture after Nigeria lost its agricultural glory in the 70s.

In many countries, Nigeria inclusive, it is not usually a simple task to unseat an incumbent governor, how much more the President. So, it will take a stronger force than incumbency to remove the sitting President from Aso Rock, even if the voices of the majority of Nigerians clamour for his exit. If he does not use his incumbency to influence the results of the votes, then count on him: he is truly a good and God fearing man.

Before whatever will happen happens, however, it may be worth the while to point out that it will be wrong to give the impression that Jonathan's rule was a total failure. Jonathan certainly made his mistakes as many in that very demanding position are likely to make, faced with the same situations. And, we need to remind ourselves that most of the problems we accuse Jonathan of either creating or abating were only inherited by him. He never created them.

Has anybody wondered why Chief Obasanjo preferred to scold Jonathan, his political godson, in public – and criticize him on the pages of national tabloids rather than privately? Surely, if the elder statesman saw that this President of his making was not getting things right, he could have called him privately to suggest to him the way to do things right. But OBJ being the worldly-wise man he is, realised that someday, soon, the PDP after 16 years of misrule could collapse and then it would be time to apportion blames. He had to find a way out.

To put the matter direct, if the present government fails, that is, if Jonathan fails in his bid for a second tenure, it is not all about Jonathan, it will be all about PDP.

It is PDP that killed Nigeria, not Jonathan. Right from the onset in 1999 when the mantle of political leadership was handed over to Chief Obasanjo, smartening from his prison release, the foundation was laid to make or mar Nigeria. What Jonathan inherited, unfortunately, was the dreg of the palm wine.

Had Obasanjo laid a more solid background for the country by 1999, rather than make overtures towards enriching himself; had he followed the footsteps of his kinsman, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, to turn Nigeria into a Welfare State, given the enormous oil revenue the country was acquiring and the fact that the country had had enough bruises from military rule, Nigerians would not have been in the mess they find themselves today. But Obasanjo failed. And Jonathan could fail too, because his Godfather actually got it all wrong. And that is why when the father and the son got it all wrong, the father had to blame his son publicly, at-least to save himself the shame of being blamed by others. That is what happened between Obasanjo and Jonathan in their PDP.

Who should then blame Jonathan? Even when some people are quoted as saying they would make governance difficult for Jonathan, I think that is arrant rubbish. They are in no position to do so. The fire of discontent was stoked when PDP advertently or inadvertently refused to politically harness the economic fortune of the country and turn the country into a Welfare State. Most oil producing countries in the Middle East which did so were able to contain civil uprisings in their countries, such as happened during the Arab Awakening of 2010.

When Labour Party was in government in the UK, we had a similar experience. After about 11 years of Labour rule, people were getting used to it as the only government that could manage the system. Truly, Labour was the party that cared about the welfare of the ordinary working class families of the United Kingdom. They were always there for working class families, and could always count on their votes and the votes of their unions.

Gordon Brown, then the Exchequer and third in command after the Deputy Prime Minister, insisted on an earlier agreement he reached during the last campaign that he would succeed Tony Blair as Prime Minister. Within Labour, there was a heated battle. Many of us knew Gordon as a quick tempered boss. We believed that Tony should continue. It was at a time we had successfully formed the “Africans4Labour Movement”, a strong organisation of black Africans who had committed themselves to campaign for African votes for Labour Party.

Gordon had his way and took over from Tony as the Prime Minister and new head of Labour Party.

During a campaign outing on one of those days, Gordon was asked a question by an elderly woman who somehow was stubbornly insistent on getting a satisfactory answer from the Prime Minister. Gordon satisfied her with his answer but while on his way home, he made some uncharitable remark about the lady when a journalist in his convoy reminded him about the old woman's stubbornness. Not realising that his BBC microphone was open, he made a comment like: “Don't mind that woman. You know, she was like a bigot!”

That derogatory remark cost Labour the election. Because Gordon's microphone was hooked on to BBC, his comment beamed around the globe and people later said he had no respect for voters who left whatever else they were doing to come out and vote Labour. And that was how Labour lost the elections to the Conservatives, who now form the new government.

In 16 years of rule (or misrule) the PDP needs to ask itself as a party if it has satisfied the yearnings and aspirations of the people who have consistently voted it into power. In a democracy, everybody is important. The President may be the leader, but no leader, no matter in what capacity, can ever succeed to deliver effectively if he does not have the full backing of those he is leading.

The APC has tried to make itself visible as a responsible opposition since its formation. Its spokesman, Lai Mohammed, has been at the vanguard of portraying the party as such. The fact that all the three major and other accredited parties were even able to agree on forming an opposition mega-party and actually went about to successfully put things together is a great feat and a demonstration of the party's level of seriousness.

What many Nigerians doubt is whether the APC still believes it made the right choice in fielding Buhari as its flag bearer. They believe that a younger Northerner like any of the sitting APC governors would have been a better choice, while people like GMB would have been advised to stay on as Patrons of the party to be consulted on matters of national interest.

As Nigerians go to vote on 14th, let them bear in mind that it is not all about Jonathan or Buhari. It is about Nigeria's match towards genuine nationhood. It is first about the welfare of the poorest (not the richest) segment of the Nigerian society. It is about clean drinking water. It is about affordable medical care. It is about well furnished schools and laboratories. It is about affordable local government council houses for working class families. It is about good roads (not death traps). It is about non-stop electricity supply. It is about who can bring back the many over qualified Nigerians abroad serving foreign countries and foreign interests instead of serving the interest of the impoverished citizens of the country of their birth. It is about the future of Nigeria and Nigerian youths.

Before the cock crows on 15 February, who knows, the gods will have sealed the fate of APC and PDP and Nigeria!