BRINGING BACK THE OBAMA MIRACLE IN 2012
As America prepares for the 2010 presidential elections with emergence of Republican candidates it may just be ripe for us to evaluate the chances of a re-election of the incumbent President Barrack Obama. In the light of recent Republican upsurge starting from the 2010 mid- term Election that gave them majority of the seats in the House of Representatives going on to the present attempt to put a ceiling to deficit borrowing. We know the consequences of the global market with the withdrawal of the AAA rating by a popular agency which brought the stock market momentarily on its knees loosing points in few days reminiscent of great depressions. We know that it took the intervention of the Federal Reserve Bank of America to normalize things by reversing the losses to gains having frozen interest rates for the next two years. From the opinion polls we see the resentments of Americans over this rather contrived economic misfortune aimed at reversing the gains of the President Obama's economic policies for 2012 elections. The calculation of the Republicans is to the effect that since it was the economic crises that brought President Obama to Power because it was probably the strongest factor that could have blinded voters to his color, it would be easier to beat him if the global economic recession continued into the 2012 elections.
Having considered all that political maneuvering and the place of reality, we may be forced to really reexamine the factors that brought President Obama to power in 2008 with a view to determining whether these factors are still expected to be relevant by 2012 and how and if they can influence the voting pattern then. We must determine why the Republicans resurged so quickly to hold the Obama administration to a long damaging deal on the economy after such a wide majority in both houses was handed to the Democrats in 2008. What went wrong? How can the Democrats reenact the winning ways by also attempting like the Republicans to bring back the favorable climate of 2008, this time with the economy healthy and jobless rates falling?
Let us then refresh our minds about the factors that brought Barrack Obama to power in 2008. The six factors include 1. Youth votes 2. New Media age 3.President Bush war policies 4. Global Involvement 5.Colored America 6. Star power . What people did not know was that the economy was just the outcome of President Bush 8 year war policies which threw away America's robust economy into desert speculation of oil rewards and Middle East political power balance for America. Economy could not have become a factor when it was only a symptom.
Let us look briefly at these entries. Youth. Barrack Obama came at a time when the global youth resurgence needed a voice and America happened to be the leading light. Coupled with his experience as and local union organizer he used the door to door strategy to a good effect mobilizing students and workers to good effect. New Media age. Don't forget that the internet and its social media like Face book were developing into greater relevance in problem solving for society. It was particularly awesome for Obama who needed an unaffected medium to pass on his mass message before coming on stage to own them personally. The internet has an equalizing effect which Obama grabbed to stunning effect. He didn't just convince the people but made them part with their money to empower the cause even before they got the chance to think about his skin color. President Bush war Policies. America was fighting on two fronts and threatening to open more fronts Iraq and Afghanistan. I was the height of America's insensitivity to global feelings as well as economic recklessness. Every war brought the Dollar together with investors closer to catastrophe. For 8 years the economic downturn loomed and the deficit rose to cover his tracks while confidence on the Dollar took a battering. While this was happening investors increasingly sought alternatives and the Asia tigers rejoiced until their power produced a zenith in China's emergence as credible alternate economic power.
The other factor, Global involvement and support built up as a result of the successful transmission of Obama's change message through the internet to the world which remained as affected as Americans in the depressing economic trend. It was actually this factor that changed the political permutation a home to Obama's advantage. It was this stage that made it possible for the Democrats to mobilize a majority against the white majority often thought to have been impossible to dethrone from power. It was global involvement that brought about Obama's tour of Europe with pomp and pageantry Britain, France etc meeting Heads of governments as if a Head of State. The influence told volumes to American voters where the World would like them to go.
The other factor was resultant of the above. Mobilizing the colored America to give real effect to his change slogan was overdue because these groups have always felt some measure of marginalization in the scheme of things. The involvement of the 13% blacks was toned down for effect because it would have created another undesirable M. Luther or worse Farrakhan effect. Obama's aim to penetrate the core white may have led to his acceptance of Gay freedom and abortion well ahead of likely Catholic Church antagonism. To the colored, he promised better deal in immigration reforms amongst others.
The final factor under consideration is his Star power. You could say that this was a given considering the above array of points but this factor helped him build the quantum of understanding that led to widespread acceptance locally and globally. It gave the new age media ready content. His books were masterpieces of information about his person and circumstance sorely needed by supporters in any election. He had managed to present himself as the quintessential embodiment of the American dream even before running for the exalted office. His looks were in tandem with his ideas while his voicing of it was something to behold. This was the real reason for his ability to raise funds.
Now considering the persisting nature of America's seemingly declining economy and job crises how is President Obama expected to recreate his 2008 miracle and win a reelection come 2012? The approach is simple. Recreate the same conditions and he gets reelected. What it means for the economy is also to bring about a higher consideration than job losses and stocks in the psyche of voters at this period, just as he did elevate issues higher than skin color in 2008. Following the points raised we can look at how to recreate them at this time.
The first move is to move back from centrist position to the left for the reelection time. To do this will require concerted efforts to fulfill promises made during the 2008 campaigns the biggest of which is to change the war mongering policy of President Bush as strategy of rebuilding the battered economy. To achieve this is to pull out from all existing wars such as Afghanistan and finally from Iraq. Any exit strategy will do. The result will release more money for domestic use and cushion the likely effect of Republican induced cutbacks. It may be necessary to get the Afghans to negotiate and agree to a power sharing deal with the Taliban. With this achievement the President would have announced to the world that truly deserved the Nobel Peace prize and would have the world behind him again by 2012.
Now that President Obama has seen the plan of the Republicans concerning the American nay world economy ,now that he has seen clearly those behind this plot he has little drawback in going ahead with the Middle East peace deal. The two- state solution should be closest to reality than ever before. He can pull off a deal whereby a Palestinian State, no matter how depleted in military capability is enthroned by this year end. The Palestinian should be grateful to have a State and sign the security agreement that ensures internationally monitored security for both Israel and Palestine.
Back home Obama should push through his immigration reforms buoyed by the international goodwill and pressure. He should move closer to the colored and the marginalized groups especially the youths and aged. With these achievements he would have brought the “Washington DC complex” to its knees thereby allowing him an easier re-election in 2012.
*Mr. Nworisara aspired to be President of Nigeria in 1992 and 2003