USA is not yet sure of Besigye.That’s Why M7 is Still the President of Uganda
It is believed in some quarters that the west or developed nations are not yet sure of Dr.Kiiza Besigye and that is why Museveni is still the president of Uganda but surely he(Besigye) would not be what he is today without their support. For instance, the UK government did a great deal to help FDC out financially in the presidential campaigns last year. Besigye attended the Conservative Party annual conference and was glad to show pictures of him and the Prime minister together on his blog during the campaigns.
David Cameron and Besigye seem to be on the same table as far as Uganda issues are concerned. The FDC 2011 election manifesto received a lot of input from the Conservatives such that some people accused the party of plagiarizing it.
The media in the UK seem to be preparing us for anything in Uganda, and that is how the UK government usually works or at least it has been like that ever since I moved here. Whenever they are planning something, the media tend to be handy in terms of psychological preparations of the population. In addition, Rupert Murdoch who owns most of the newspapers here in the UK and USA is a big influence in the politics of both countries. He influences foreign policy through his media outlets. So when you start seeing Besigye stories in the Daily Mirror and The Guardian here in the UK on a regular basis then you know something serious is cooking. If I was Museveni right now, I would be spending more money in finding out where things have gone wrong than wasting time on those guys in the intelligence. They are feeding him more 'poison' than facts.
On the other hand, the Russians, French, Germans and Japans are always in no man's land as far as foreign intervention is concerned. They tend to go with the flow. The Chinese are on Museveni's side as they always side with whoever is in power. It is the Americans who have not supposedly endorsed Besigye and that is why president Museveni is still in power. The Americans seem to have a lot of influence on UK's foreign policy but if shit hits the fan and Museveni is confirmed as a liability in the eyes of most Ugandans, the Americans can go with anybody. I can bet on that! Washington politics is so complicated for anyone to predict anything, though.
It is a fact that US has got more influence than UK on international matters but they need each other. When USA wanted to attack Iraq under Saddam, it needed some form of legitimacy to do so, and usually UK is always the first to support their foreign wars, and the vice versa is true. So, assuming UK wants to kick Museveni's ass, more presumably because of Oil in Bunyoro, the Americans will not hesitate to support them because that is how international politics and diplomacy plays out- ”you scratch my back, I scratch yours”. All it needs is for Besigye and others to create a humanitarian situation in the country that requires foreign intervention and then that will be the end of Museveni's dictatorship. Under international law it is permissible to act in self defense and it is permissible to intervene in another country's affairs for humanitarian reasons. To intervene for other reasons is a war crime.
Mr. Otunu is the weakest link among the top three opposition leaders. Yes, he has got international contacts and all that, but he is not popular on the ground. He is ”Mr.Smiley” and this does not sell in African politics. The US has a basic mythology that basically involves appeasement of some dictators, squeezing some and getting rid of others. For example, Bush used to give praise to Egypt's Hussein Mubaraka very well knowing that he was a dictator, but when protests started they nicked him in the bud. Actually, there is nothing like a favourite opposition leader for USA unless if one is ready to protect their interests if helped to gain power. So the myth that Otunu is USA's preferred candidate was built by him and the media in Kampala. It is something in the heads of those in Kampala but Otunu knows the truth now. He is a good Guy,Otunu, but he is not anything more than just a UPC president right now.
Yes, Otunu was in such an influential position at UN but his position was not more powerful than that of Mohamed ElBaradei. The latter was the Director General of Internal Atomic Energy Agency and his job exposed him to the international media and influential people all over the world. But when it came to the Egyptian protests, he proved to be unpopular with the protestors and he ended up not providing the leadership desperately needed at the time despite seemingly endorsed by the Americans. The west abandoned him when they realised that he was not popular on the ground. The key here is being popular among the ''wananchi'' before anything else.
Right now, there is no way anybody would form a transitional government in Uganda without Besigye in it, whatever his weaknesses, because he is more popular than the rest. Besigye's biggest enemy now is not Ugandans but some FDC leaders and some in opposition who harbour leadership ambitions. They are actually not happy that he still has more 'pull' power than them after losing the presidential elections for the 3rd time, and they will be the one Museveni will expectedly use to plot his downfall. I don't know whether Besigye knows this but it is an open secret in the eyes of any observant.
By the way, I can't see the Americans abandoning Museveni soon because he is doing a good job for them so far. There are Uganda troops in Somalia and the US mission in Kampala is appreciating this gesture, but they are also keeping tabs on the situation on the ground. When they shout orders to him, he obliges without any resistance, for instance, they reportedly told him to abandon the homosexuality bill and he indeed did that; they allegedly told him to let Besigye go for treatment in Nairobi and he gave him a 'weekly flight pass' which he wanted to cancel later on. Nevertheless, if there is any sense that Museveni is losing control of things on the ground, the Americans will kick him like a puppy in the house. They are very good at it, just ask Brother Gaddafi who opened up his boarders to them and showed them where he even keeps needles. We now even don't know where he is hiding!
To be honest, I don't see Museveni going at the expense of the Americans. Obama has so far done well than Bush but he is slow to make decisions and that is his main weakness. He has captured more terrorists than Bush. He has even got the biggest fish in Osama Bin Laden but I can't see him directly declaring a war on president Museveni however much he presumably hates dictators. President Museveni is doing everything the Americans want. So why would they wanna get rid of him?
However, I can see Europe knocking him out if Britain does a PR on the whole issue. There is a strong sense in the UK that there is chaos in Uganda and the population has been prepared through regular media publications and reporting on Besigye and riots. We have been seeing this on BBC and Channel 4 news almost every week.
So don't be surprised if things change faster than we thought especially if president Museveni continues with his policy of 'chest thumping' (e.g. I can't share power with Besigye(NEWVISION) or I will create Vietnam(DAILY MONITOR)). President Museveni has not really helped himself as he keeps falling in Besigye traps all the time. Why is he acting the way he is acting now? Is it bad intelligence briefings or there is some unfinished personal business between the two? It is so confusing!
Oil is basically president Museveni's biggest enemy right now because even the rich businessmen in the world have assumingly started looking at Uganda as a 'target'. If we did not have oil, he would have led Uganda till his death despite the number of Ugandans that have died and suffered under his regime. Some of these rich people are capable of financing coups and wars that topple a dictator in favour of the leader of their choice. For instance, I don't know whether some of you have heard of a man called George Soros, a Hungarian born American citizen. He uses his vast wealth to meddle in foreign affairs. He helped to bring down three foreign governments; the Ukraine, Czechoslovakia, and Soviet Georgia. It is easier to bring down governments through individuals rather than wage a full scale war against a small country like Uganda.
At the moment, Besigye has got president Museveni where he exactly wants him: political rat hole. For example, Besigye generated more than 99 headlines internationally the day he was barred from boarding a flight from Nairobi back to Uganda, if anyone bothers to Google it. This is the dream of every politician all over the world. If I were an honourable head of state somewhere, I would not have bothered to show my face on Museveni swearing-in day. No wonder Zimbabwe's Mugabe was the star man on the occasion in Kololo.
I know some Ugandans have got some kind of beef on Besigye but he still remains the best 'olive oil' to fry with at the moment. He has been subjected to a lot of things that even UPC's Obote never did on Museveni in 1980s. Those who want change have now got a job to convince the Americans that he is the real deal. If they get convinced then we shall see some serious changes in Uganda even if Museveni remains the president for now. I highly doubt that president Museveni is capable of making a mistake to openly give a 'finger' to the Americans when they tell him to share power with Besigye. Museveni never jumps unless he is sure there are no thorns on the ground. So when the game is over, he will be the first to know it before most of us. He is not dumb, you know.
Byebyo ebyange
Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba
UK