Forecast: Renewable Energy Will Generate 42% Of Electricity By 2028
Notwithstanding many obstacles, projection showed that renewable energy resources are expected to generate 42 per cent of all electricity globally by 2028. Latest report by DNV, an independent assurance and risk management provider, has disclosed that solar PV will also top nuclear electricity generation by 2026.
The Energy Industry Insights 2024 tagged: “Transforming Through Uncertainty”, noted that for the first time ever, in 2024, variable renewables (dominated by solar PV and wind) will generate more electricity than hydropower.
However, it said all renewables will generate more electricity than coal, while wind alone will produce more electricity than nuclear power by 2025.
According to it, “In 2026, solar PV will also top nuclear electricity generation, and by 2028 renewable energy resources are expected to generate 42 per cent of all electricity globally.
“This spectacular surge in renewables is just the beginning. The world is still heavily reliant on coal, oil, and natural gas which supply close to 80 per cent of total global energy.
“Electricity demand is also growing faster than renewable electricity generation, meaning renewables will not gain market share from fossil fuels until the early 2030."
The report stated that renewables face fresh challenges which include; supply chain issues, rising costs, competitive pressure (both from rivalsand alternative sources or services), permitting delays, and sustaining growth when subsidies and tax breaks end.
The Co-founder of Alexa Capital, Gerard Reid, said: “We’re now moving away from government subsidies for renewables towards power purchase agreements and capacity payments.”
“Permitting/licensing issues and inadequate infrastructure continue to be among the top five barriers to growth for renewables respondents, and 70 per cent say that power grid infrastructure cannot yet adequately connect sources of renewable energy to areas of high demand. Just 21 per cent say that current transmission capacity planning is sufficient to enable the expansion of renewable," it added.
However, it pointed out that political variables will impact development of renewables globally in 2024, even as some stakeholders are optimistic.
It said, “Every election carries implications for economic policy, international diplomacy, and security. Many electorates will also be voting on parties and candidates that advocate divergent views on energy and climate policy.
“For the energy industry, this comes at a time when political risk has risen to become the leading barrier to growth. It was ranked just 13th in 2022 and 6th in 2023. The rise to the top of the list in 2024 is surely driven by the persistent increase in global conflict over recent years, now compounded by uncertainty about how elections will impact policies.
“This has brought many varieties of political risk, including nationalisation in Venezuela, corruption in Russia, militancy in Nigeria, and war in Ukraine."