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After weeks of intensive campaigns across the federation, the contenders have finally been separated from the pretenders. So far, the two front runners before us are: President Goodluck Jonathan of the incumbent party, PDP and General Muhammadu Buhari of the major opposition party APC. With less than a week to the polls, both presidential contenders are in the final week of their campaigns, they have toured the whole federation with their eldorado promises. From the campaigns so far tensions are high over which party will emerge winner of the presidential election. Will it be business as usual for the ruling government or a time for the progressives?

From the campaigns and the reactions from supporters in campaign rallies so far, it seems the odds are in favour of the main opposition party but Nigerians are divided in their divergent opinions over who wins the presidential election. But does the large turnout of supporters that welcomes the opposition party APC even in states where they don't have a single structure enough to conclude it will be a victory for them at the polls come February 14 2015?

The likely outcome of the February 14th, 2015 presidential election depicts a story of what happened few years back while serving as a member, National Youth Service Corps. (NYSC)

The outgoing exco's regime came under heavy criticism for their high handedness and insensitivity towards the affairs of other corp members and the rule was that they will be the ones to conduct election for their replacement.

Before the election, potential candidates emerged from my batch, the next most senior batch for all the various posts, with innovative policies of what we will do differently pending the date of the election.

The out going excos were not comfortable with our rising popularity coupled with heavy criticism of their leadership. They decided to pay us back, they wanted a continuum of their kind of leadership in our regime to serve as a punishment for criticising their own leadership, they knew if they conduct election they won't have much influence in imposing candidates on us, in order to achieve that, they went to our supervisor and lied to her we were fighting over leadership positions and the best way to curb it was to select our batch mates that have not shown interest in any of the positions and form an interim exco that will take over from them. Our supervisor accepted the idea, they came on the day of the election and told us they got an order from our supervisor to form an interim exco. An unpopular lady from our batch was announced as the head of the interim exco. Our protests and petitions on why we should test our popularity through election fell on deaf ears. When our supervisor came to settle issues, they told her the reason for our unrest is because the head of the exco is a female, without giving us a chance to air our reasons, our supervisor bought the story hook line and sinker and said because of that the unpopular lady will remain our president, anybody that disobeys her will get a query. That was how our plans for effective leadership was scuttled. Our innovative policies never saw the light of the day, the imposed interim excos didn't perform any better and we lived with the pains of not being able to elect our own representatives with a slogan, “man proposes another man disposes”, till we passed out.

The story above is exactly what's playing out right now in our political scene. The way many electorates are so sure of victory for their candidates in the presidential election and are looking forward to the general elections day to exercise their franchise was the same way we waited anxiously for the scheduled date of the elections to vote for our preferred candidates.

Same way people are identifying and supporting the main opposition party APC because of their populist wind of change statement to Nigerians if voted into power was the same way our innovative policies of what we will do differently aided our popularity.

The ruling party PDP had thought it will be business as usual in this presidential election but from reports coming from their campaigns, they are coming to terms with the fact that their series of impunity are catching up with them, it is obvious they have realized how unpopular the twin monster, insecurity and corruption have reduced them to. Same way our out going NYSC excos were not comfortable with our rising popularity against their dwindling popularity and decided to punish us by imposing an interim exco, the ruling party's desperation is setting in, after calls for the postponement of the general elections was rebuffed by INEC and dissenting Nigerians. Their latest threat is if they don't win the presidential election, instead of handing over to the opposition, they will install an interim military government, that will rule for 6 months and conduct another election that will transfer power to PDP.

That is the level their desperation has degenerated to, Nigerians are already scared of the make or mar contest for fear of the uncertainty. Here in Nigeria, its been a case of Man proposes, another man disposes, force it against the will of the people and attribute it to the will of God. Are we going to allow man's disposition on the will of God this time?

Its the electorates time to get it right. It is “our long walk to freedom” and we won't allow few greedy politicians to stop what “God disposes”.

The credit belongs to those who are in the arena, who strive fearlessly and who at worst, if they fail, fail while daring greatly. Theodore Roosvelt.

Written by Joe Onwukeme: Social & Political Affairs Analyst.

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