The 2015 General Elections And The Normality Syndrome
For some time now, I have been surprised by the apprehensions and fear with which many Nigerians view the forthcoming 2015 elections. Some say Nigeria will be on fire if PDP wins again while others say that 'it will be to your tent oh Israel' if the APC does not win. I do laugh at the level of our forgetfulness and cowardice which unfortunately, have characterized the political character of Nigerians. Simply put, Nigerians are the worst history students in global history. We engage swiftly and forget easily.
Obviously, the 2015 elections will take the shape and character of our past elections just as its results would elicit the same reactions as in the past elections. It will be won and lost in the full glare of Nigerians and in our normal attitude, watch with hands akimbo as it is either free or rigged. Ordinarily, a typical Nigerian does not worry his head over who wins the elections and misrule them for fifty-four years but can throw in his life support against anyone who shuts his business outlet just for few minutes. Just try this out at Ochanja or Idumota markets.
As a matter of fact, nothing extraordinary will happen in the 2015 general elections. Those who feel that the country will break would be disappointed because having blown up the ample opportunity of doing so during the Civil War regaining such opportunity now is a herculean task.
Buhari is one of the best bet for the Presidency going by his antecedents. A critical assessment of the followership of this no-nonsense General shows that most of his followers are those who strongly believe in him as a person and who believe he could recover the country. This could be seen in the process that led to his emergence as APC standard flag-bearer at the Lagos Convention. It was reported and strongly alleged that all the other aspirants shared various amounts of mouth-watering cash of 'transport money' to the national delegates but Buhari won without even asking them if they walked or flew to Lagos for the Convention. Wonderful! But the significant question is, apart from his die-hard followers, how many other Nigerians are for him in words and truth and are ready to patriotically support him at the polls. There is no doubt that the General, like few other Nigerians, has the capacity of changing for the better, the future of this country.
Granted the grace of this deep-rooted knowledge of the country, one thinks that Nigerians do not really want anyone that can truly fix the state. They prefer people with peripheral solution to their problems. They like suffering and smiling and prefer to be referred to as such. Therefore, Buhari looks too serious with his change initiatives that many Nigerians are becoming too uncomfortable and afraid of his victory. Frankly speaking, there are indications that being typical Nigerians, even those who voted for him at the Lagos Convention may not vote for him in the 2015 general elections because they also have godfathers who would voluntarily go on self-exile should Buhari wins. The simple logic is that there would be voluntary movements into self-exile, including a good number of party stakeholders, on the inauguration of Buhari as President. Politicians prefer military jails than civilians. Under the military they are called 'Political Prisoners' and the regime, as tyrannical while in democracy, they are known as Constitutional Prisoners with damaging paraphernalia. The stigma of the latter lasts forever.
Objectively, the PDP is likely to win the Presidency going by the spread of the party and the willingness of some power brokers in the various parts of the country to cooperate with President Jonathan who has so far offered them the political space to operate. For instance, some current northern stakeholders who, before the emergence of Jonathan, felt dominated by the hitherto existing hegemonic structure dominated by the Fulani oligarchy are, by no means, ready to go back to a wicked yesterday when they were unfairly treated as unequal; but, today, are in the mainstream of national politics. Out of fear of local reprisal, they may campaign for Buhari but secretly vote for Jonathan. Jonathan is currently cruising to victory because his major strongholds are not so threatened by the opposition as the threats of the PDP in APC's sphere of influence. For example, no amount of political miracle would give APC a major vote percentage in the presidential election in Anambra State, in spite of, their great love for Chris Ngige. Conversely and most interestingly, no matter the winning formula of the APC in Kano, the PDP will still get 25 percent of the total votes in the state at the presidential level.
Apart from the Presidency, one foresees a situation of fierce battle between the parties. The opposition may dislodge the ruling PDP at various other levels bearing in mind the controversialist nature of the party's primaries all over the country. The fear is that the PDP may not be in total control of the National Assembly and other levels of leadership thereby entrenching more contentions, as well as, caution in national leadership.
However, in the normal Nigerian character, whoever wins between Jonathan and Buhari Nigerians would definitely react. There will be 'normal' demonstrations across the country and if possible riots that could lead to some killings and maiming of innocent Nigerians after which all calms down and normal businesses continue. This is very normal with Nigerians at the end of every election.
Those that are relocating from the various parts of the country because of the elections are simply wasting their time and resources because as usual, nothing will happen and life must go on after the elections. Most Nigerians, no matter how wretched, do not want to die, and the politicians, especially, those that have seen the beauty of Abuja and tasted the flavour and power of Ghana-Must-Go bags, would never attempt any form of political suicide.
One is very sure that the politicians who left some political parties at the peak of the elections would begin to return back to their original political parties and the normal political conviviality, conspiracies and manipulations continue till the next elections. That's Nigeria and Nigerians for you.
Dr. Frank-Collins Nnamdi Okafor
Department of Political Science, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka
08035004614 [email protected]