On the 22nd of November 2014, members of the state security service, acting on a tip off raided a data capture centre used by the APC in Lagos.

In a press release by the SSS spokesperson , she clearly stated that exploitation of some of the recovered items revealed that one particular individual had his data captured eighteen times with different names, addresses but same photo.

But the APC has continually threatened to form a parallel government if the 2015 elections are rigged. The party insisted that she will not go to court but form a parallel government .The APC is yet to tell Nigerians which authority will determine if an election is rigged or not.

The APC Presidential Candidate, General Buhari has also clearly said in a Vanguard interview in 2012, that the 2015 elections will be bloody if they are rigged. He never talked about what authority determines a rigged election.

In April 2014, the APC National Leader, Bola Tinubu clearly said that the coming elections will be 'Rig&Roast”, and the party will not go to court, a statement that even drew condemnation from the United States government Counsel General, Mr. Jeff Hawkins .

With the event of November the 22nd and the statements from the APC leaders, it is clear they are planning to rig and also planning to roast Nigerians if their rigging fails.

I think the APC is actually hallucinating about carrying out a violent revolution like the idiocy of the Arab Spring which has actually left those countries worse off than they were before.

On the other hand, the APC should also realize that those who want to form parallel government, (an euphemism for secession) might not even announce it before hand. The event might just announce itself.

In my primary school days I used to see the map of a country known as Yugoslavia in geography textbooks. It was one of the largest European countries. Today I can't find that country on the map again.

It has been replaced by seven different countries, Bosnia-Hezegovina, Serbia, Kosovo, Macedonia , Croatia, Montenegro and Slovenia.

Yugoslavia split in pieces due to political crises in the 90's , which led to a bitter ethnic war between the major ethnic groups.

In March 2005, the National Intelligence Council in the United States held a conference where top experts on sub Saharan Africa discussed likely trends within the region. After the conference, a 17 page paper tagged “Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future” was released.

Hear what part of the report says about Nigeria:
“Other potential developments might accelerate decline in Africa and reduce even our limited optimism. The most important would be the outright collapse of Nigeria.

“While currently Nigeria's leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja.

“The most important would be a junior officer coup that could destabilise the country to the extent that open warfare breaks out in many places in a sustained manner.”

The report also warned on the risk to West Africa if Nigeria were to break up .

It says: “If Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the West African region. Even state failure in small countries such as Liberia has the effect of destabilizing entire neighborhoods. If millions were to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the surrounding countries, up to and including Ghana, would be destabilized. Further, a failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years if ever and not without massive international assistance.”.

Our desperate violence mongering politicians should actually take their eyes of the oil bounty in Abuja and read the clear signs emerging.

Remember the report talked about a Junior officers coup. We can see that the last 12 months have brought up the largest cases of military mutiny in this country with the mutineers openly getting endorsement from the same APC.

With the sequence of things , isn't it most likely that a parallel government declaration by the APC will probably divide the army and probably get the backing of the junior officers?

Is it now getting clearer why major powers are subtly refusing to sell weapons to Nigeria? This might be one of the reasons why the US has constantly blocked out purchase of the Cobra helicopters . I'm no longer convinced it's about the Leahy law and human rights, there is more to it.

My analysis is simple , the US might not want to lump sophisticated arms into this country until the 2015 elections are resolved amicably.

President Jonathan has clearly given INEC a free hand to operate by first appointing a Nigerian northerner of impeccable pedigree to head the umpire board. Our last elections are seeing aspirants losing and openly congratulating the other party, a first timer in Nigerian history.

The President has clearly shown that he doesn't interfere in any electoral process and this can even be seen in the manner 90% of his former ministers lost their guber primary elections as he never lifted a finger to deliver any of them.

The President has publicly told his supporters that his ambition is not worth the blood of any Nigerian . He has constantly asked his supporters not to rig for him and evidence has shown that he has always instructed the security agencies to reduce politicians ability to rig .

A clear evidence is the case of Edo State where the APC governor openly thanked the President for sending in soldiers who protected people and the votes counted . This was a contest in which the Presidents interest was fully involved.

Over the past few months, their have been veiled attempts to drag in Ijaws like Asari Dokubo or E.K Clark to make reciprocatory statements and I'm impressed that they held themselves.

In one instance, some mischievous elements even gave Asari a voice by declaring he will invade Yoruba land, a clean attempt to pitch two tribes against each other, but it failed as Asari has recently denied the statements.

Our politicians should learn that when they fight over the food and break the pot, there might not be anything left for anyone to eat .

May God help us.
Written by Ken Agala.

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