2015: Eurasia tips Jonathan, says APC in disarray.
With the presidential poll few months away, World's largest political risk group, Eurasia, has said that based on scientific calculations, President Goodluck Jonathan is expected to return as President.
. Eurasia gave PDP a 75% chance of winning the election but said APC, with 25%, still had a chance “if it can mobilize behind a strong northern presidential candidate that has Buhari's backing and a vice president who can deliver votes and high turnout in the southwest”.
. The US based group said the defections that affected PDP have stopped and have even been reversed in some cases, noting that the biggest opposition party, All Progressives Congress (APC), was in “disarray”
The Africa Director of Eurasia, Philippe de Pontet, said that the six months leading to the presidential election “will be tense”, forecasting “constant politicking, attacks by Boko Haram… and policy stagnation” ─ and a possible outbreak of riot in northern Nigeria if Jonathan is re-elected
. Pontet wrote: “A Jonathan win could feed political unrest in the north, but makes it less likely that rebels in the Niger Delta re-ignite their attacks on oil infrastructure and personnel.”
Pontet said it was unlikely there would be fiscal or monetary policy “upheaval” and that the campaigns may not completely upend the investment climate or reverse Nigeria's economic momentum.
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