Boko Haram: New Considerations For New Challenges
Boko Haram is facing two new challenges: the rise of the farmers is the most significant new challenge that threatens the sect's status quo. The second new challenge faced by the group is the foreign intervention, which in our view is less worrisome and of particular appeal to the sect.
Rise of the Farming Villages
It has been clear following the events of the past couple of days that the farming villages have risen to fight to save themselves from the unabated carnage of Boko Haram. From Bama to Chibok, to Rann, Shuwa and Dikwa villages in Borno, and also now in villages in Adamawa, the farmers have decided to bear arms and use all means necessary to face the Boko Haram invaders head-on in armed and spiritual battle.
They have waged a “Jihad (struggle)” against Boko Haram, no longer depending on the State security service. The villagers have scored some of the most significant victories against the sect in these encounters. Over 300 terrorists have been killed in the hands of the villagers in less than 10 days of armed resistance and several dozen have been arrested. Weapons and transport equipment used by the cultists have been claimed by the villagers.
How Boko Haram May Face The Villagers Threat
In light of the determined, brave resistance of the villages the terror sect has prior enjoyed the free ransack of, Boko Haram is calculated to attempt to modify their techniques to prevent such massive losses of their lives and equipment. One new technique the sect already demonstrated in attempt to inflict carnage from a distance is the use of long range weapons. In an attack on Bama, a now fully armed village this weekend, the terrorists reportedly fired rockets at the village market square from a distance. We can expect such similar long-range artillery attacks from this cowardly sect in the coming weeks. In light of this, we will later recommend strategies the villages should utilize to defy the sect of success. It must be noted that Boko Harm acquires these weapons from its easy conquests of Nigeria's military barracks'. The Giwa raid yielded the sect tons of rifles and missiles as eye-witnesses informed us.
The International Coalition
France, Canada, The United States, Israel, France, all these nations have suddenly decided to get involved in the Nigerian terror crises. Their sudden realization of the seriousness of Nigeria's terror threat under Jonathan comes after the cult abducted 234 girls from a secondary school in Chibok, Borno state, April 14th this year. Though this abduction is not the worst this cult has done, this event raised significant global awareness that appears to have forced action from these foreign States. Boko Haram however has done much worse, comfortably and under the radar of the watching eyes of the world in the past four years of Jonathan's government. Boko Haram has abducted thousands of men and women; raped the women and forcefully, at knife-point, conscripted the young men. Boko Haram has killed an estimated 40-80,000, injured over 245,000 and displaced over 3 million citizens in the northern parts of Nigeria.
The western intervention which is taking place after the recent abduction however is surprisingly an obvious desire of the cult. It has been noticed that the persons claiming to be Abubakar Shekau in video releases over the years, have always offered open invitations to the west, almost begging for them to come. “Shekau” in almost all his videos has always called the names, “Francois Hollande,” “Obama,” and “Margret Thatcher” or perhaps “Queen Elizabeth.”
Apparently, being involved in a battle against these foreign nations has always been in the terror sect's interest. Boko Haram has always craved western participation in the war and always desired western boots on Nigerian soil. The reasons for this are difficult to imagine, however, while inviting foreigners into Nigeria's north, the terror sect has not particularly targeted foreigners and foreign interests in Nigeria. Their target has remained literally limited to destabilization and decimation of Nigeria's north.
Boko Haram: Seeking a Rhythm to The Carnage
If 95% of the attacks of the Boko Haram terror cult since President Jonathan assumed office are to be studied, one begins to see an undeniable pattern. What has Boko Haram done the past four years? 1. In the initial stages, Boko Haram began by bombing Churches literally every Sunday. This was evidently aimed at instigating religious crises in Nigeria. Religious crises in Nigeria will promote disintegration of the nation, a desire of southern elements more than northern players. When organizations like Muslims Against Terror and brave northern leaders like Sheikh Gumi, late Sheikh Albani Zaria (killed by Boko Haram), Sheikh Jingir,
Sheikh Pakistani to mention a few, stood up and thrashed the activities of the cult in the middle of 2012; calling it demonic and promoting Muslims to defend Churches, the terror cult suddenly stopped attacking Christians and went after a new target; Imams and farming villages. 2. So we get to the second target of Boko Haram: The northern poor and farmers.
Boko Haram has since the middle of 2012 and through the emergency rule from may 2013 to date, gone on an expensive mission targeting farmers and farming villages from Benue to Borno with the aim to maim, frustrate and displace any and every farming village in sight. Boko Haram has aggressively invested on and engaged on a mission to deplete and destroy the only resource in Nigeria's north: farming.
The reasons for this well financed and expensive mission against Nigeria's farmers in the north and in whose interest such activity can be is left to the imagination, however, analyzing both points of Boko Haram's engagement over the four years of the Jonathan administration, one cannot avoid seeing its sponsorship as coming from foreign quarters possibly interested in farming in Nigeria, and definitely from quarters of either people who are pro-destabilization and disintegration, anti-north, interested in the land of the farmers, or northerners who dislike the north and Nigeria and wish to push frustration, suspicion, famine and disintegration. Boko Haram pays as much as $3000 as revealed in a recent BBC report, to boys in Cameroun and Niger to recruit them to decimate farming villages in Nigeria's north. According to the report, the terrorist leadership pays them big bonuses, the more farmers they are successful in killing. Why does Boko Harm hate Nigeria's farmers?
Boko Haram: A Short Term Agenda
In view of the above mentioned points, one realizes that contrary to the submission of Nigeria's President in France, Boko Haram has never had an agenda of taking over Nigeria. Had Boko Haram had such agenda, it could have achieved this rather simply. Nigeria's military today is so underfinanced; they lack the ability to resist a Boko Haram incursion against national interests and the capital, Abuja. Boko Haram and the Niger Delta Tompolo civilian force sponsored by the Nigerian government are both better equipped and motivated today than the army that is severely undermined under the Jonathan administration.
The effects of sabotage and corruption on the State army have been elaborated by the Pentagon and United States officials involved in Nigeria's mission to find the abducted girls. In contrast, the current administration has financed the development of a civilian army of ex-militant, Tompolo with millions of dollars. Boko Haram and Tompolo's army both have night vision goggles, while the Nigerian army does not have such equipment.
The disadvantage of the Nigerian army came to public light, if it was not realized in our exposes and those of SaharaReporters, when there was mutiny at the Army division 7 in Borno. The soldiers there could not take it anymore and according to confirmed reports, actually attempted to kill the GOC.
In recognition of this, Boko Haram has obviously had a very limited and local agenda: destroying farming in the north and the northern economy and Nigeria's food stability and local food supply. Further elucidating the limited time and scope of the sect's agenda, we realize that the sect has fully engaged in terror that not only annihilates the local community that it depends on for food, but also depletes any local support it can get from the same community.
This is suicidal to say the least. No group or organization that has a long-term plan, destroys its local food source and local acceptability. Boko Haram had a time limited plan to inflict as much causality on the local farmers and fiber of the north and Nigeria's food sufficiency, and then to invite the foreigners.
Foreign Intervention: The Time Factor
Foreign intervention in Nigeria predicts protraction. Almost everywhere in the world foreign powers get involved, the crisis never ends. We can predict that a crises that Yar'Adua curbed in weeks, will now extend in Nigeria for decades. Unlike Nigeria's intervention in Liberia which Nigeria satisfactorily solved and completely stabilizes in a few years, with Boko Haram now with foreign intervention, one can predict the crises will manage to stay alive for over ten years.
It is displeasing that other African countries could not get involved with troops and equipment in addressing Nigeria's terror crises as Nigeria used to do for them in the past. A local, ECOWAS and African originated address of the terror crises if Nigeria had had good leadership, would have potentially solved this rather non complex problem, quickly and completely.
A local armed civilian Patriots resistance, as worked for Algeria during its 1991-2000 Black decade, if the governors of the affected stats and the President f Nigeria honestly cared for the people and intended to end the terror, would have provided a quick and effective end to the problem: the locals know the terrain and the enemy more than anyone else with whatever sophisticated equipment of surveillance and mass murder they bring.
Foreign Intervention: New Strategies of the Terrorists
With the foreigners here, Boko Haram is expected to engage in new strategies that tamper with international consciousness. The recent attack in Cameroun with the possible kidnap of up to ten Chinese nationals is possibly the beginning of a new desperate approach. It is advisable that all foreigners within Nigeria, Cameroun, Niger, Chad, CAR and Algeria, update their security measures. Boko Haram is expected to be on the prowl for foreigners they can kidnap and utilize to negotiate with the foreigners and use as aerial bombing shields.
Global participants in Nigeria have realized as most Nigerians have for the past four years, that Nigeria does not have a government. John Kerry, Senator McCain, Hillary Clinton, New York Times, The Economist, News.com.Au, The London Times, to mention a few foreign observers have professed this in one form or the other in the recent weeks since the spotlight was on Nigeria. A recent statement purported to have been made by the governor of Borno State elucidates this further. The governor allegedly said that if he opened up, “heads will roll.” Apparently the governor of Borno is not opening up to prevent heads from rolling. So what are heads? We the masses have seen thousands of farmers heads rolling. If there are sponsors or failures of the Nigerians security services that need be exposed and that need their heads to roll along with those of ours, why will the governor of Borno state be hesitant to expose these? Obviously to him ours are not heads but merely mud balls rolling in red sauce. Heads are heads of the cabal, military chief's, heads of defense and executive leadership; those are what our leadership consider “heads,” our deaths and our “heads” that have been rolling in our blood are to them, mere disposable farmers' chicken-heads.
ENDS Recommendations, Mission
Of particular interest to the ENDS organization is the safety of life and welfare of the poorest and most affected Nigerian masses. In light of the fight and armed resistance against Boko Haram; as the most successful strategy against the sect today, we support the procurement of all weapons of self defense by Nigeria's farming villages and a continued brave armed resistance against the marauding terrorists.
We have thus far distributed battery operated Bullhorns and aerosol spray hand-held alarms, to Bama and Biu and sent others to and Gamboru-Ngala, Dikwa and to Kwa Busar. We intend to supply many of these alarm devises to all most affected communities to utilize in an organized vigilante alert defense set-up. We have also commenced the distribution of intruder detection equipment that the villages shall be utilizing to monitor their surroundings. These villages now suspect to rocket attacks are advised to have several rotating look-outs with alarms and an alarm alert chain to alert the entire village in the event of attempted attacks, this system akin to the nuclear attack and artillery alert systems applied in western nations and Israel during its wars.
We also advise the villages divide up their markets and market days so they are never gathered together in large numbers; to reduce possibility of causality from Boko Haram attacks of any sort, till we the civilians have exterminated the threat by cutting off their food supply, link to community and finally by invading and decimating them.
Civilians Will End Boko Haram in One Month If Military Pulls Out
We will support the villagers in any armed attempt to invade and engage the terrorists in their hideouts. It has been made public information that the Nigerian armed forces are ill-equipped, unable and currently uninterested in engaging the terrorists. The people on the contrary are willing, motivated and able. Vigilante's in Nigeria's north have offered that the military can now be pulled out as the President of Nigeria wishes. In this event, the villagers will cooperate with the foreign partners and are poised and ready to invade and clear all bushes of the terrorists in one month.
Dr. Peregrino Brimah for http://ENDS.ng [Every Nigerian Do Something]
Email: [email protected] Twitter: @EveryNigerian