Ghana Elections 2012: Who Wins And Why

… Pollsters Rule-Out Runoff Voting

ACCRA, December 07, (THEWILL) - By the close of polls to elect a new parliament and president in Ghana today, the overwhelming belief of Ghanaians is that incumbent caretaker President John Dramani Mahama will retain the seat to start his first full four-year term as President and also become the 4th President of the Fourth Republic beating the likes of Nana Akuffo-Addo, (New Patriotic Party, NPP) Dr. Paa Kwesi Nduom, (Progressive Peoples Party, PPP) and others by garnering the necessary 50% plus one vote to keep the ruling National Democratic Congress, NDC, government in power.

He will also be the 4th ‘John’ to sit on the Presidential chair since 1992 when the Fourth Republic came into being following a stream of Johns before him – Jerry John Rawlings (1992 – 2000), John Agyekum Kufuor (2001 – 2008) and late John Evans Atta-Mills (2009 – 2012).

And contrary to the run-off scenarios witnessed in the 2000 and 2008 to declare a winner, pollsters have all agreed that the pendulum has tilted more in favor of the incumbent than that of veteran politician Akuffo-Addo and there will be no run off.

These poll results published in the last week of the voting by independent bodies including one conducted by the Bureau of National Security (BNI) akin to the FBI all gave it to Mahama.

According to renowned pollster, Ben Ephson, the 2012 Presidential election is not likely to see a run-off as his poll has shown that the sitting president will garner enough votes to see him cross over the 50 per cent plus one vote line needed to win the election.

According to him, Mahama will win 52.2% of the votes while Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) will win 44.7% of the votes.

The remaining five parties – Convention Peoples’ Party, CPP; Peoples’ National Convention, PNC; Nduom’s PPP, New Vision Party, NVP; and the Independent Peoples’ Party are expected to take home 3.1% of the total valid votes cast though he explained his poll has a two per cent margin of error.

But NPP national party chairman, Jake Obetsebi Lamptey, was not amused by these poll results calling them inaccurate.

According to him the NPP is confident of victory in today’s polls and is therefore not paying attention to Ben Ephson’s polls adding that the figures put out by Ephson are not exactly what he intended to put out.

“Something went wrong to his type writer or his printer and saw the numbers the other way round,” Mr. Obetsebi Lamptey said.

Ephson’s response to the party chairman was that his track record as a pollster will vindicate his predictions of a straight victory for President Mahama in Friday’s polls.

According to him, he used the same methods he used in his accurate predictions since 2000.

A Nigeria based multinational which deals in socio-political research, RESTATS International PLC, in its own polls have put President Mahama ahead.

The poll which it conducted between November 25 and December 2 revealed that the incumbent was significantly ahead of his main rival Nana Akuffo Addo.

Using a sample size of 2750 respondents across the country, the sampling was done systematic on constituency dwelling basis. The margin of error is estimated at 2.1% and confidence level tested with the t-test.

It established that, Mahama would lead the poll by 53.7%; followed by the NPP’s Nana Akuffo Addo polling 38.2% while the rest polled as follows: Hassan Ayariga PNC 3.6%, Dr. Paa Kwesi Ndoum PPP 2.1%, Dr. Abu Sakara Forster CPP 1.15% while the rest of the candidates together polled 1.25%.

The Nigerians also said in their report that the NDC will win in 155 constituencies whiles the NPP takes on 116 constituencies. The PNC will win two seats; the CPP one seat in Jomoro and one Independent seat in the Bunkpurugu constituency.

The most critical election issues identified were led by Education which scored slightly above peace, stability and security at 36.2% and 35.8% respectively. Jobs and the Economy scored 21% and the others such as Health, Agriculture, and Infrastructure development and so on scored 7%.

Mahama, according to the survey, will win Greater Accra, Upper East, Upper West, Brong Ahafo, Volta and the Northern Regions, and maintain a marginal lead against Nana Akuffo Addo in the Western Region.

The pollster also predicted that Nana Akuffo Addo, the NPP Presidential Candidate will its traditional Ashanti and Eastern Regions but with a rather lesser margin compared to the 2008 elections run-off.

But what are the underlying factors that could deliver the presidency to Mahama as reported by the various independent polls including that of Synovate released in September which also called it for the President?

The indicators are that the governing party developed a strategy based on the dynamism and youthfulness, branding and packaging of caretaker President Mahama. The strategies employed in 2008 which included winning additional votes from its traditional Achilles heel of Eastern, Ashanti Regions have been improved upon in addition to mobilizing the voters in its traditional strongholds of Volta, Northern, Upper East and Upper West Regions.

Results from the second round voting in 2008 from the five regions presidential results in the 2008 elections showed the following - Eastern Region: Nana Addo Dankwa Akuffo Addo: 491,520 (57.14%); Evans Atta Mills: 353,522 (41.10%). It showed clearly that any additional percentage votes for the NDC from this region in the presidential polls will give John Mahama an advantage in the poll.

The development projects undertaken in this region showed the likelihood of the NDC attaining some positive results.

Ashanti Region is also crucial for the NDC. By employing a simple strategy of creating new constituencies has considerably lowered the political temperature in the opposition NPP’s stronghold. This has created a platform for the NDC to close the gap on the margins won by the NPP in that region in 2008 by severely limiting electoral fraud. The 2008 election results in the region showed Nana Addo: 1, 214,350 (72.40%); Mills: 438,234 votes (26.13%).

It is most likely that unfolding events are in favor of the NDC to improve on its performance in their opponent’s political stronghold which would definitely put the party ahead in all strides to score 50 plus percent of the votes in the first round. Strategically, the party’s campaign machinery is brimming with confidence believing that it has made major inroads into the opposition stronghold and therefore poised to improve on its electoral fortunes. Yet party operatives continue to trumpet the achievements and highlight the major developments in educational infrastructure, roads and other social/political interventions in the region.

Another strategy the ruling government has employed is the intensive grassroots campaign taking into account the diverse ethnic groups in the three northern regions. There is every indication that President Mahama will sweep the northern votes.

Results of the 2008 elections give a clear indication that the NDC will still win the three regions. In the Northern Region for example, Nana Addo: 303,406 (38%) Mills: 450,564 (55%). Is it possible for the NPP or Nana Addo to change these figures or gain more votes this time round? In those regions, the NDC’s campaign machinery is touting all its achievements added to the advantage of incumbency to cherish a President as their son. How can the NPP manage these dynamics?

Furthermore, results from the Upper East in the 2008 elections tell a different story. While Nana Addo got 118,454 (35%) of the valid votes, late Mills had 188,405 (56%). Is the NPP in a position to gain or lose more votes this time? There is every indication that the NDC has intensified its efforts to harvest more votes.

The voting pattern in the Upper West Region is not much different. In 2008, Nana Addo had 81,137 votes (37.72%) while Mills won 116,922 votes (54.36%). Clearly, the figures are in favor of the ruling party. Is it then not politically clear that the NDC is likely to gain more votes in these three regions? Or is it politically prudent to believe that NPP would pull a surprise by gaining more presidential votes on Dec. 7?

The rest of the regions, Greater Accra, Western, Brong Ahafo, Central and Volta Regions, look to be fairly good for the NDC as the party’s performance in opposition against an incumbent government in 2008 was very close. One can comfortably say that the gains made by the NDC in government will impact greatly and positively in it wining the 2012 by a one touch electoral victory.

The polls have shown the NDC wining majority of the seats in Greater Accra Region, Western, Brong Ahafo by a slim margin while taking Central Region and taking all the 26 seats in the Volta Region in addition to the Upper East and Upper West Regions and losing only two in the Northern Region.

Another factor that has worked against the opposition leader has been his personality, a key determining factor in any keen political contest. Unfortunately personality and trust are some of the major factors negatively affecting Akuffo-Addo, as he and his campaign team are finding it very difficult to give a new face to their plans and strategies.

Already there is a general perception that former Presidents Rawlings and Kufuor each had the luxury of serving two four-year terms in the Castle, it is just prudent that late Mills also be given that chance. His successor who is standing in and now contesting for his first four-year term for the late president’s party should therefore be given the nod.

Besides, many are asking what will be new from Nana in terms of policy and change which could be superior to what the late Professor Mills was doing and continued by Mahama. Nana’s answer to that question has been his ‘Free SHS’ mantra the cost of which he and his campaign team have not been able to tell the electorate thereby casting more doubts on this policy.

Though Akuffo-Addo is more of an astute politician and has played some role in the democratization process, unfortunately as a political brand he has presented the posture of a very arrogant, desperate, violent, ambitious omniscient politician who has the solution to all of Ghana’s problems.

That attitude has not endeared him to many voters, his party men inclusive while his violent conduct and incitement to violence and tribal politics has even made many party top men to shy away from him creating a worrying situation for the party leadership who have computed that the party is likely to lose about two to five percent of votes from the five regions of Ashanti, Eastern, Western, Central and Eastern.

While his handlers’ projection is to command additional votes in the presidential election in the northern regions, this is bound to fail, since the ethnic card is going to work against them. President John Mahama is a son of the north and riding on the NDC ticket in an area that traditionally is and NDC stronghold turns out to be a huge political advantage. That area has not produced a president since late Hilla Limann in 1979 who was overthrown within two years (1981). To his ‘people’ this is the time to throw the party card away and vote for a ‘son of the soil.’

Clearly, Mahama has enjoyed a high percentage of mass appeal within this short time of the death of Professor Atta Mills.

Politically, the NPP is in a fix as reality dawns on it that the NDC’s action plan is simply to win just about four percent additional votes from the five regions known to be the NPP stronghold and it will have the seat in its kitty and in one round.

Results from the first round of the presidential election in 2008 in the five pro-NPP regions showed how difficult it will be for the party to overturn these figures win by one touch. Here are the statistics:

EASTERN: Nana Akufo Addo: 57.14%; late Prof. Mills: 41.1% and with this result the NDC’s work has been made much easier as it is working to win additional marginal votes from the Central Region. While in Ashanti Nana polled 72.40% as against Mills’ 26.13%, ground and party activities in the region shows clearly that the NDC will make more gains in the presidential elections on Dec. 7.

The Central Region, late Mills’ home region has exhibited mixed reaction with these results. In 2008 Nana Akuffo Addo polled 45.97% as against Mills’ 50.58%. Strategically, the NDC looks very strong on the ground and poised to deflate the vote deficit of Nana Addo again by opting for Vice President Paa Kwesi Amissah-Arthur, who though might not be a hit with the media is reaching the grassroots and will therefore add up to the presidential results for Mahama.

In the Western Region, Nana Addo had 47.55% in the first round of the 2008 elections, while Mills had 47.06%. However, the NDC is using its political wisdom by doing so many developmental activities in the region to guarantee it the lead in the presidential polls by clocking the 50% plus margin to win the election by one touch. This has been made more practical by the fact that the area is the base of Ghana’s emerging oil industry and home to the country’s major mineral resources: gold, timber, cocoa and a port. Because of the oil find, the port of Takoradi is undergoing expansion; the petrochemical plant under construction is in the area that means the area has had its fair share of development projects including extension of water, roads, electricity etc. These will inure to the advantage of Mahama.

In 2008 Brong Ahafo gave Nana Addo 50.56%, while Mills had 47.70%. The reality on the ground is very sketchy, but the establishment of a new public university, the fact that Mahama’s spouse hails from the region which shares borders with Mahama’s tribesmen might turn into additional marginal votes for the NDC. The pollsters have predicted the NDC to win 15 of the 29 parliamentary seats.

Strategically, the projections show clearly that Nana‘s ‘win five regions’ approach to victory cannot work.

The appearance on the scene of Mahama negatively affected the NPP national campaign team, which had not worked on alternative policies but pinned all its hopes on using corruption and the judgment debt issues for its campaign, which it could not sustain.

Hanging on to the so-called rift between the party and its founder Jerry Rawlings has also failed to give it the momentum it needed to create an effective campaign agenda. Added to these is the NPP’s inconsistent campaign manifesto, which is suffering on all political score cards even with the Free Senior High School hype. To worsen it has been the inability and difficulty to package, re-brand and present Nana Akuffo Addo with a final message that will sway voters in the final lap to the December 7 polls.

Certain people however must be blamed for Akuffo-Addo’s imminent defeat. He has suffered so much from ignoring or sleeping on key ingredients needed to give him the diadems. His political controllers: Gabby Otchere Darko, Nana Akomea and self made political hawk Kennedy Agyepong have not been helpful.

Otchere-Darko’s role in cooking the strategy to use former President Jerry Rawlings has failed just as Nana Konadu Agyemang Rawlings’ political defection and the Woyome judgement debt controversy as a political campaign weapon to do maximum damage to the NDC fell flat on its face creating an obvious hastily thought-of incoherent and incommunicable campaign promise headache for the entire NPP communication team.

With the main thrust of their character assassination campaign dead on arrival with the sudden death of Mills, party leaders had to pull the chestnut out of the fire; a new campaign message and promise had to be thought out and the solution for the ‘smart thinking’ NPP men is the so-called ‘Free Senior High School’ campaign promise they are strenuously trying hard to sell to an increasingly discerning and sophisticated voter population.

The three prominent personalities whose actions should have created a good platform and empathy for the entire campaign team failed to achieve the cohesion, set the agenda for alternative policies and what kind of message could the party election machinery to use to reach the first time voters and the floating voters necessary for a total victory.

Gabby’s alleged agenda, we are told, was to use the Free Senior High School socialist message to win the hearts and minds of core party supporters. Though the message might be appealing to floating voters, it is not convincing enough to inform potential and floating voters to blindly vote for Nana since they have not been able to explain its funding and implementation making the idea more and more unrealistic and difficult to sell or buy into.

What went wrong with this propaganda strategy was its overt attempt to use Mrs. Konadu Agyemang-Rawlings and his spouse Rawlings to form a new political party. So much time and resources was spent on implementing this political strategy and communication machinery that the NPP began to believe its own propaganda. Out in the open, the NPP then put out a message to suggest that the National Democratic Congress was in a state of confusion, which its leader could not control thereby by describing late President JEA Mills as an inefficient, weak and uninspiring leader.

How effective was this strategy?

Prof. Mills passed away and John Dramani Mahama rose to the highest office bringing with him hope and a new inspiration for the NDC just in the nick of time as their strategy against the late president had passed its incubation stage and that mischief was already afoot.

The last straw that broke the NPP elephant’s back – their symbol is the elephant - was Rawlings joining the NDC campaign team asking all followers of his wife’s National Democratic Party (NDP) to join or rally or support the NDC for victory. This is what the Akuffo-Addo camp never imagined!

Nana Akomea, leader of the NPP Campaign 2012 communication team though was able to form a strategic communication team, his role to reposition the party through an effective brand communication, sell and repackage the party and the product, Nana Addo, did not go down well for floating voters to buy into for 2012. In effect victory is looking like a bridge too far.

Unable to present a united front as a communication team, Nana Addo therefore looked stale in the soapbox as all he could do is follow the Goebbels principle of ‘keep repeating a lie often enough and it will be accepted as the truth’ as he kept repeating same flagship programmes for the past six months. Unfortunately this has undermined other dynamics such as branding, packaging and sustaining the hope to register the political message in the minds of the voter to make an independent decision to vote for Nana Addo.

The double edged sword political hawk of the NPP, Kennedy Agyepong also did incalculable damage to and destroyed party cohesion and brand so much that his utterances do not bring any good fortune to the party. Agyepong’s blood curling noises on issues has rather sent the floating voters scurrying for cover. His baying has ensured that some basic communication tips to keep in mind have been lost. For example, how effective and damaging the message is?

Was Kennedy Agyepong carrying an assignment for Nana to win 2012 election or to create an atmosphere of fear and panic to discourage people to come out to vote or to say bye to the 2012 presidential election?

That perception was further deepened when Akuffo-Addo refused to condemn Agyepong’s genocidal and ethnic insults including calling on supporters to arm themselves and slaughter members of the Ga and Ewe tribes.

Agyepong’s stance has created disaffection for the party and its followers though the party leadership will not accept this in public, but in private they have discussed it in detail but the horses have already bolted and there is no need locking the stable doors.

Only a miracle will see Akuffo-Addo in The Castle on January 7, 2013.