Benue 2027: It is Still Yes Fada!

Exactly 24 years ago, I wrote a piece on the then Benue State Governor, Dr. George Akume, who was warming up for his second term.

Entitled "Benue 2003: It is still George," the opinion was published in THIS DAY Newspapers. This title is, therefore, neither new nor original to this intervention - it's just another line from history's bookshelf.

It's proof that there is really nothing new under the sun: History just keeps repeating itself. And, through this piece, we'll see the bold signature of history, by and by.

First, Gov. Akume, as I predicted, went ahead to consolidate his mandate, with a decisive triumph over his major challenger and guber-candidate of the defunct ANPP, Wantaregh Paul Iyorpuu Unongo (now late) i.e. 681,717: 443,957 ratio.

On the surface, the affable Akume secured his victory for himself - after all, it was his name that was on the ballot. However, in a larger sense, he opened the door of second-term victories wide for all his successors. Put bluntly, every elected Benue state governor has won a second-term since 1999. Akume set the tone and left an enduring template.

This is why both of his successors before Alia, Rt. Hon. (later Senator) Gabriel Torwua Suswam and Nyamkyume Samuel Ioraernyi Ortom, secured their second-term bids with comfortable wins.

We often say "What's good for the goose is good for the gander." We can modify this to say: "What's good for predecessors is also good for successors" - this incumbent in focus.

So, from the foregoing, one can say His Excellency, Rev. Fr. (Dr.) Hyacinth Iormem Alia, is on safe ground - as far as his re-election project is concerned. He has tradition, convention, history, his salutary stewardship and the people on his side.

Second, the piece was written against the backdrop of the 2003 general elections. It was accordingly anchored on an in-depth analysis of the pulsating political currents, a diligent sieving of the bombastic political rhetoric from factual messaging and a close-up on the guber-candidates' strengths and weaknesses.

Of course, politics is not a precision science, and predictions/prophecies cannot be couched in absolute terms, but my overall reading of the configurations, the dynamics, the mechanics and the metrics gave electoral victory to Akume long before the vote-count on the election-day.

And looking at the big picture today and doing an X-ray of the individual variables, one can confidently say: Like yesterday like today or, more directly, Like Akume in 2003 like Alia in 2027!

And third, the guber-race in 2003 was a crowded affair from both the main and the fringe parties just like today. Among the flag-bearers were: Dr. George Akume himself, PDP; Hon. Terwase Orbunde, NDP; Ex-Gov. Moses Adasu, AD; Rev. Timothy Ikyanyon, PRP; Chief Stephen Korayom, NCP; and the political institution himself, Wantaregh Paul Iyorpuu Unongo (ANPP).

Each of these people wanted to prematurely terminate Akume's tenancy in Government, Makurdi. And each was tall on promises. But except for Adasu, where Akume put the List of what he had done on the table, the others brought their To-do Lists. The people were not exactly persuaded.

It's the same story today as we look at another governorship election on the political horizon. Few of the governorship candidates have enough public service records to stand upon or to market themselves with. Those with good standing or viable ideas came into the race late or are standing on unviable platforms.

It's an interesting mix. Some are more popular than their platforms, others are battling name-recognition or ticket squabbles, others are in the race to upgrade their resumes, one or two others are hoping a godfather will, somehow, wave a magic wand.

Interestingly, Alia does not hide the twin-pillars of his support: his standing with "the Masses" and his refreshing stewardship.

Traditionally, Benue votes for two parties, even without statutory compulsion. No matter the crowd, when the system separates the Men from the Boys at the primaries, the people now make it a two-horse race.

In 1979, it was Aku/NPN vs Paul Belabo/NPP; in 1983, it Aku/NPN vs Unongo/NPP; in 1999, it was Akume/PDP vs Ignatius Nomhwange/APP; in 2003, it was Akume/PDP vs Unongo/ANPP; and in 2007, it was Suswam/PDP vs Daniel Saror/ANPP.

In 2011, it was Suswam/PDP vs Torkuma Ugbah/ACN; in 2015, it was Terhemen Tarzoor/PDP vs Samuel Ortom/APC; in 2019, it was Ortom/PDP vs Emmanuel Jime/APC; and in 2023, it was Titus Uba/PDP vs Hyacinth Alia/APC.

It's always a two-party affair, and 2027 will not be different. It's going to be Alia/APC vs Mike Aondoakaa/PDP - except a political earthquake upsets the Benue political terrain as now obtains.

On paper, Chief Aôndoakaa appears formidable. His resume is good. His imposing frame gives him an executive look - although a political contest is neither won by power nor by might!

He also does appear to sometimes make the right noises. But whether or not he is connecting with the people is another thing.

His governorship quest reminds us of Fada Adasu's ill-fated second coming in 2003. Adasu was an irregular and unorthodox politician whose capacity and competence enabled him to sign his developmental signature on boldly on the Benue landscape within his short period in office (Jan. 1992 - Nov 1993).

Despite this, his return-bid suffered a big setback. The people appreciated his executive foot-prints and progressive visioning, but were also not shy to let him know that his re-quest was out of season and out of turn, having fallen outside the Intermediate-Family the governorship was zoned to at the material time.

It's the thing that burdens the Aôndoakaa governorship ambition, hobbling his movement and deflating the quest even before the D-Day. He is Kwande, and 2027 is not Kwande's turn, but Jechira's. There is a rigid, even if unspoken charter of equity in place, and it's too late in the day to torpedo it.

The foregoing shows the near-certainty of Gov. Alia's victory and the path it will most certainly take.

Will it be easy? Never. It wasn't easy in 2003 either. The gang up was strong and vicious, with the Opposition even breaking the news of Akume's "death" following his extended medical trip to Germany! But a "resurrected" George Akume returned from Wiesbaden to energise his Consolidation 2003 Campaign and route the strongest of his challengers. Even the acknowledged Institution could not effect any mid-play substitution!

There was the much-touted Abuja-Power, but it did not save those who relied on it. In Akume's first term, he fell out with Chief Barnabas Gemade who later became the PDP National Chairman. It seemed Akume's fate was sealed, but it only seemed so.

Even after losing the PDP chairmanship, Gemade remained Abuja's centre of gravity of the fierce opposition to Akume's return, Come 2003.

However, with the people behind Gov. Akume, the Home-front was able to effectively knock the engine of the Abuja-front, and return Akume to office for a second term.

Today, the tables are reversed, with Akume being the fulcrum of the forces opposed to Alia - although the opposition has now entered the mild mode. But even as Abuja exerts itself, it is conscious of the dynamic Home-front, and what happened in 2003.

Put plainly, as far as human planning is concerned, Alia's return is a fait accompli.

Is he a perfect governor? No, there is no perfect governor in the country. Is he ruling like God. No, but he is ruling as one who knows God. Has he got everything right. Not at all. If he did, he wouldn't want another executive term. Is he making mistakes? Yes: only God doesn't make mistakes.

Is he making everyone happy? No, making everyone happy is the work of those who sell ice-cream and pop-corn (due credit to Vice President Shettima).

Is his class conventional or everyday? No. His class is distinctively Aliasque. He may be irregular, unorthodox and even unpredictable, but is it bringing dividends? In bountifuls. Is being different a crime? No. After all, class is the man, we are often told.

So, what's Alia doing? He is bringing the greatest good to the greatest majority. And that's democracy. That's leadership. That's the ultimate community service.

Imobo-Tswam, a former newspaper editor and public space commentator, writes from Abuja.