Using AI To Predict Climate-Driven Displacement In Africa

Millions of people worldwide are facing the combined impacts of climate change and forced displacement.

With global temperatures projected to rise by more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, livelihoods are increasingly at risk, potentially driving more people to move.

While sudden disasters such as floods and storms trigger immediate displacement, slow-onset events – including drought, rising temperatures and sea-level rise – contribute to longer-term migration trends, particularly in vulnerable communities.

To better anticipate these movements, the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) has developed a machine-learning model focused on East, Central and West Africa.

The model analyses refugee and asylum-seeker data to help predict cross-border displacement linked to gradual climate impacts. Internally displaced populations were not included due to data limitations.

UNHCR said the initiative highlights the need for proactive strategies to address the growing intersection of climate change and forced migration.