OGUN 2015: THE PEOPLE, POLITICS AND POWER
Before now, I have always asked if Ogun State APC will be mature enough to manage its success, recent happenings are increasingly pointing to the fact that APC may not be mature enough to manage its success in the long run. The Oke-Mosan Government House is a race between the All Progressive Congress, the Peoples Democratic Party, the Labour Party and maybe the Action Group of Nigeria.
The seeming / eventual implosion of APC has resulted in the Oshoba faction moving their political structure to the Action Group of Nigeria, an action that has severely weakened the APC's political structure and future. One of the greatest blunders committed by APC National is allowing the Oshoba group to breakaway, an indication that they are underestimating the political relevance of Oshoba in Ogun State (less I forget, people are now increasingly asking when Oshoba will retire from Politics). One thing that political watchers are saying is that it will be near impossible for the APC to win the Governorship Election and even if it wins, it is not going to be a bed of Roses as it used to be especially as whoever become the next Governor will have many battles to fight, chief of which will be from the State House of Assembly. One should not forget in a hurry that Oshoba is mostly being accused of trying to be overbearing politically by the Amosun Faction.
PDP on the other hand is really power hungry after carelessly allowing power to slip out of its hand during the 2011 Election. Their desperation has made them approach Gbenga Daniel (after reaching a deadlock agreement with Oshoba) on the need to combine forces with PDP to uproot the Governor. If there is any party that will be / is difficult to work with for 2015 Elections in Ogun State, it will be the PDP. Those seeking to join political forces with PDP to uproot APC are rumored to be asking for too much as the necessary and sufficient condition for working with the PDP to dismantle the APC while in turn PDP keeps telling those who cares to listen that it is not a Father Christmas Party. What remains to be seen is if and how Gbenga Daniel will join political forces with Buruji Kashumu to defeat the incumbent as the two political gladiators are known to be sworn enemies.
The labour party is gradually gathering political momentum and Gbenga Daniel is known as the spoiler, (and may eventually be the game changer ahead of Oshoba) he did it before, during the PPN era and he still have the political foot soldiers to do it again (at least as a payback for exposing his state of origin). Labour and Action Group of Nigeria (AGN) will be seeking two main objectives, one; to win as much seats as possible and secondly to uproot the political structure of APC in Ogun State.
Conclusively, Ogun Election will eventually be reduced to a personality struggle and winners will emerge base on their Individual strength as opposed to the party Goodwill. Lastly, each candidate is a mirror of those spearheading their Political ambition and by extension Nigeria is a reflection of Nigerians.
Oyede Saheed, is a postgraduate Student of Risk Management and Insurance, University of Lagos.