Grim prognosis of the oil and gas war
1. After the expiration of the 60 cease fire the Niger Delta impasse will not be resolved.
2. The FG will try to attack militants relying on faulty intelligence reports from the inept intelligence agencies.
3. The military will attack more villages and kill innocent civilians in an attempt to dislodge militants. The military will further aggravate the situation by this attack.
4. Those who accepted amnesty will return to the creeks.
5. MEND will carry out more devastating attacks on Oil and Gas installations.
6. Destruction of oil and gas installations can never be stopped by military means because the network of pipes is wide and in difficult terrain.
7. SSS, NIA and DMI will continually offer inept intelligence reports because of the Northernization of these agencies.
8. Militant attacks will be upgraded to the killing of foreign investors in the oil and gas sector because anyone who does business with an unjust government is as guilty as that government.
9. Key Nigerian Military officers of Northern extraction will be assassinated in retaliation for the killing and raping of civilians by the military. Treacherous Niger Delta politicians will also be eliminated by sniper squads.
10. Foreign investors will flee from the country due to security concerns.
11. Revenue for the FG will drop considerably due to persistent attacks and security concerns.
12. Britain we attempt to assist the FG by campaigning for MEND to be classified as a terrorist organization.
13. The UN Security Council will be divided over this issue as China and Russia will veto such a classification.
14. Russia would want to have total control of the gas supply chain hence Russia will assist MEND in other to ensure they are in control of the Gas project linking Nigeria to Europe.
15. Britain will make a u-turn by abandoning the North and trying to assist the Niger Delta. Russia and Western Europe will battle for the Gas supply chain using the Niger Delta as their pivotal focus. When the Niger Delta snobs the overtures of Britain, British intelligence will attempt to sow seeds of disaffection amongst Niger Deltans.
16. The Niger Delta will align with Russia due to Britain's past role. The seeds of disaffection planted by Britain amongst Niger Deltans will be overcome and the Niger Delta will emerge strong and powerful.
17. Nigeria will disintegrate or transform into a confederation.
Dr. Howard Lawson