EDO 2012: THE MEN, THE PLOTS
The ruling Action Congress of Nigeria(ACN) in the state would be squaring up against the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP), which controls the Federal Government and majority of states in the country. And the outcome of the governorship poll will determine who is in charge of the politics of the state, between the state governor, Adams Oshiomhole and the PDP national leader and former Minister of Works, Chief Anthony Anenih. Oshiomhole belongs to the ACN.
The July 14, governorship poll in the state promises to be an epic political battle and the climax in the bid for political supremacy between both men.Oshiomhole and the PDP leader has been engaged in a dogfight over the control of the politics of the state. Since his emergence as governor of the state in November 2007, the former President of the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) has worked assiduously to whittle down the influence of Anenih in the politics of the state. Prior to the emergence of the 'comrade' governor on the political scene, the former works minister controlled the political firmament of the state. He decides who lives or dies politically in the state.
When Oshiomhole emerged governor of the state through the instrumentality of a Court of Appeal judgment, which declared him winner of the April 2007 governorship election in the state, he declared a ruthless war on the PDP political machinery in the state under the control of Anenih. First, he got council chairmen elected on the PDP platform to defect to the ACN, some of those who refused to move were removed under controversial circumstances, and replaced by their vice chairmen, who embraced the governor's party. After that, the governor took the battle to the state House of Assembly where he took control of the leadership of the House, also in very controversial circumstances.
In the just concluded 2011 general election, the ACN under the former labour leader's command routed the PDP from the state as it won majority of the seats at stake in both the State and National Assembly. Ultimately, the PDP which used to control the politics of the state has been reduced to an opposition party with only five seats in the state House of Assembly men, two seats in the federal House of Representatives and one seat in the Senate. While the ACN has 19, 6 and two seats in the House of Assembly, Federal House of Representatives and the Senate respectively.
Expectedly, the governorship election scheduled for middle next year is another opportunity for decisive battle for the political soul of the state. In view of its impressive outing in the last election, the ACN sees the governorship election in the state as a forgone issue. The ACN chairman in the state, Thomas Okosun says, presently, there is nobody in the state who can match the state governor in next year's election. He says the governor's achievement will speak for him, when the time comes. He believes the victories of the party's candidate in the last general election were endorsement for the state governor, and expresses confidence that it would be replicated in next year's election.
'I want to say that from the day we took over, we started preparing. Our preparation is in terms of infrastructural development that we have brought to the state. This party (ACN) and Adams (Oshiomhole) are like a moving train, and no man can stop it. God's hand is on Oshiomhole, and no man can fight against him. What will they say that he has not done that they will now challenge him? Are they going to reward him evil for good? I want to say to you that come July 14, he will be re-elected', Okosun told Daily Sun in Benin City.
Contrary to the ACN chairman's boast, the Edo South Senatorial Candidate of the Labour Party, Isaiah Osifo argues that the governor has not done anything spectacular that would guarantee him a second tenure.
According to him, it is expected of the ACN to say that Oshiomhole is impregnable, even when they know that the other parties are capable of pulling the rug off his feet. He says what the governor's party is flaunting as his achievements are mere display of prodigality. Osifo accuses the governor of playing to the gallery in the issue of the development of the state.
'He is going to be defeated. I don't know the sector that he has done well that he is going to get votes from', the LP chieftain declares. The state vice chairman of the PDP, Owere Dickson Imasogie concurs. He informs that PDP is prepared to take on the ACN next year. The PDP leader says his party would prove to the world that the governor's party won the last election through foul means by winning the July 14,2012 governorship polls. 'We are very prepared. This is a PDP state. We are more than 'ready', he states.
The men
So far, no fewer than seven persons are known to be interested in contesting the next governorship poll. They include the incumbent governor. Though Oshiomhole has not openly declared interest in a second term, his foot soldiers have started a subtle campaign for his re-election next year. He is the only person known to be aspiring within the ACN.?
Apart from the governor, others who have at one time or the other indicated interest in the governorship election ate, Professor Osareheimen Osunbor; his former deputy, Mr. Lucky Imasuen; former presidential aide and PDP governorship aspirant in 2007 election, Professor Julius Ihonbvere ;former minister of state for works, Mr. Chris Ogiemwonyi; former PDP and ACN governorship aspirant in the 2007 election, Mr. Ken Imasuangbon and the latest entrant into the governorship race, Major-General Charles Airhiabvere. Airhiavbere is a former director of Finance, Nigeria Army, and instructor at the Nigeria Institute of Policy and Strategic Studies, NIPSS.
Whoever emerges the PDP governorship candidate would slug it out with Oshiomole in the main election.
The plots, the intrigues
Oshiomhole understands that the contest is not going to be a tea party. Consequently, from the inception of his administration, he has been courting the traditional institution in the state, particularly the palace of the Oba of Benin, Oba Erediauwa. The Oba of Benin is a very respected monarch in the state. Apparently as a way of consolidating his relationship with the Benin palace, Oshiomhole appointed one of the Oba's sons as the Chairman of the Oredo Local Government area. The recent emergence of the Uyi Igbe, son of the traditional prime minister (Iyase) of Benin Kingdom, Chief Sam Igbe as the speaker of the Edo State House of Assembly is also seen as part of the script for the 2012 governorship poll.
Daily Sun reliably gathered that recently a 21-member strong delegation of traditional rulers from Edo-North, where the governor hails from and led by the Otaru of Auchi, Alhaji Aliru Momoh, visited the palace to felicitate with the Oba on his birthday celebration and used the occasion to thank the monarch for the support he has been giving to Oshiomhole since he became governor of the state.
The visit is instructive, given the fact that the the Otaru of Auchi and the Benin monarch prior to this time are not known to enjoy the best of relationship. Besides, sources within the PDP accuse the governor of sponsoring crisis within its fold as way of weakening the party ahead of the election. The Edo PDP has been enmeshed in crisis for the three years running now. But, Okosun says there is no iota of truth in the allegation against the governor. He told Daily Sun in Benin City that the crisis in the state PDP has been on before Oshiomole assumed office.
Impeccable sources told Daily Sun that as a way of checking the governor, the PDP is planning to field somebody from Edo South senatorial zone, that would equally be acceptable to the Benin Palace. Edo South has over fifty per cent of the population of the state. The calculation within the PDP is that if it chooses its gubernatorial candidate from Edo South, it would be sure of winning majority of votes from the area, which will put it far ahead of the ACN in the election.
The battle within the parties
Besides the strength of whoever emerges as the standard bearer of both the ACN and PDP in next year's governorship election, one factor that may militate against the parties in the election is alleged infighting within their fold. For instance, in the ruling ACN, there is said to be a cold war between the state deputy governor, Mr. Pius Odubu and the former Secretary to the State Government(SSG) and ACN leader in the state, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu.
Though the party has continued to deny the crisis, an ACN chieftain confirmed to Daily Sun that there is indeed a frosty relationship between Ize-Iyamu and Odubu, which has made it impossible for Ize-Iyamu's loyalists to get political patronage. The source who said it is the governor that is fighting the former SSG by proxy says the cold war is the reason why party members who are perceived to be loyal to the latter are sidelined in the sharing of the spoils of office.
The ACN chairman demurs. 'These two people are brothers. There is no division among them. It is very far from the truth', he says. Analysts believe a division within its ranks would be very costly for the ACN. So, the ability to resolve all the real and perceived differences in its fold would make or mar it in next year's contest.
Just like its rival, the PDP has some internal issues that if not resolved to the satisfaction of all the stakeholders would spell doom for it. Principally, the way the party selects its gubernatorial candidate would determine if, or not it would make headway in the July 14 governorship election. Already, there is disquiet in the party. Some of the aspirants are said to be apprehensive that there may not be a level playing field in the governorship primaries of the party.
Those in the know say the warm reception given to Airhiabvare by the party leadership in the state has not gone down well with other aspirants. Imasogie says such fears are unfounded. According to him, the party has decided to give a level playing to all the aspirants. 'There is nothing of such. We are saying that there must be real congress. We have always had congresses. So we will do the same in the gubernatorial election'.
However, he admits that some members of the party are of the conviction that the governorship ticket should be zoned to Edo South given its population. Though Oshiomhole's foot soldiers see the contest as a walk over for their principal, the truth remains that the contest as of today remains very fluid and unpredictable and could go either way.