NATIONAL ASSEMBLY: PDP STILL HOLDS SWAY

By NBF News

Reasons to raise the blood pressure over the elections abound: The chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Attahiru Jega, is new in the saddle. He came just last year July. He made so many demands that were met, to ensure the elections come clean. He is a man with a past that looks wonderful and so much was expected of him. The president, Goodluck Jonathan, came newly also and promised so many wonderful things on electoral reforms, away from the old order. Indeed, Jonathan is of the late President Umar Yar'Adua scion that came in through fraudulent election. To pull out of the decay, he had promised Nigerians something different. So, if Jonathan gets it right this time, he would be keeping faith with the joint mandate he had with Yar'Adua, and maybe a good memory for the late president.

The National Assembly elections were the first in the series of elections to come, and was like the experimental spot. To actually certify the extent of tension, Jega gave Nigerians the first of its kind of surprise, in her electoral history, when he announced midway into the election on April 2 that it has been postponed for two days. The day after, he announced another postponement to the next weekend. Confusion reigned.

Before the day of reckoning earlier accepted by Jega, he still came back with more shocks: that the same elections won't hold in some constituencies. For the Senate, there were 15 of such exemptions, out of 109 slots nationwide. And for the House of Representatives, there were 48 exemptions of the 360 constituencies. At this point, many wrote off Jega as confused and not worth the expectations and the office.

But on the day of the elections, there were 85 percent reports of satisfactory elections, and what many described as the closest in Nigeria to what election should be. Such people held there has really been a good shift from the old regime.

The outcome
As at middle of this week, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the dominant party, had captured at least 58 of the 94 senatorial seats contested. From the results released, the party already had about 60 percent of the senatorial seats, a good victory to enable them form the leadership of the house. The Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), most dominant in the South West trails PDP with an intimidating outing and foray into areas formerly held by PDP. It had got 13 senatorial seats, as at middle of the week, and 40 House of Representatives slots, as against 135 for the PDP. It was a good showing for CPC, the youngest of the parties to come third in the ranking of dominance. The party is powered by the personality of the former Head of State, Muhammadu Buhari, with six senatorial positions and 33 House of Representatives slots.

The development in the polls is a good pointer to the truth that personality that makes the party and not the other way round. PDP's dominance stems from its early formation by about 35 Nigerians reputed as champions of democracy and not those that hijacked and benefited from it instead. Another good instance is the situation in Ondo State, where the governor is of the Labour Party. While he is busy building the party in the state, he has made sure the party swept the National Assembly seats last week. Even the personality of the former governor, a PDP man, Segun Agagu, who contested for the senatorial seat, the combined influence of Defence Minister, Adetokunbo Kayode (SAN) and the business mogul, Jimoh Ibrahim, would not sway the dominance and influence of Governor Olusegun Mimiko, the emerging leader of a strong LP.

Kano State governor, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, one of the presidential candidates and his party, the ANPP, has been keeping to its bidding. Fact is that no one ever gave the party the expectation of winning the national elections. But Shekarau has kept his constituency intact with seven Senate seats and 23 House positions.

Generally, the results showed a better spread for the democracy, with seven parties having places in the National Assembly, quite unlike in 1999 and 2003, where it was about two and three parties only respectively. That is ample growth and expansion of the democratic threshold of Nigeria.

Between current National Assembly and emerging one
From the out come of the elections, it is apparent that the country is going back to 1999, when three parties (PDP, ANPP and Action for Democracy, AD) held sway at the National Assembly. At that time, AD produced all senators and members of the House of Representatives from the South West. The ANPP produced a chunk of National Assembly members from the North, in about nine states. The PDP produced members of the National Assembly from South East, South South and some parts of the North. In 2007, when PDP made an in-road into South West, the AD collapsed. Also, ANPP lost ground in the North. These made PDP the dominant party in the National Assembly.

The last elections have seen the CAN, which is a metamorphosis of AD, taking back South West, except Ondo. The fortunes of ANPP are still waning, as the party only won seven Senate seats. However, Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) has redeemed ANPP, as it were, winning seven Senate seats. The combination of ANPP and CPC seats is close to what ANPP had in 1999. However, Labour party (LP), the All Progressive Grand Alliance and Democratic Peoples Party (DPP) have sprinkle of representatives in the National Assembly.

The configuration now, however, does not diminish the PDP. The ACN and ANPP/CPC took back their previous strongholds.

The earthquake
On the night the world stood still to welcome the first black United States president, in Chicago, the night of November 5, 2008, the camera always beamed on Rev. Jesse Jackson, who stood in the crowd with tears rolling down his old cheeks. He had his finger on his lips. The disposition was a telltale of the drama playing in his mind - if he was dreaming or really awake. This was a man, as a young boy, who witnessed the 'I have a Dream' speech of late legend freedom fighter, Martin Luther King Jr. and the day he was shot.

But that night, he saw, in his lifetime, that old dream realised. And he could not easily believe it. On April 9, at the National Assembly polls, a big history was chronicled in the political annals of the nation. Daughter of former President Olusegun Obasanjo contested election in the full glare of his father, a political bully of sorts and lost. Not just that she lost, but also the world never came to an end. The Speaker of the House of Representatives from the state ate the humble pie also. He accepted his fate and made himself a brave man. It is still like a dream. The rot in PDP started in one entity and festered into a contagion on the whole nation's democracy. Is it possible its healing has started at the same point its decay commenced - in Obasanjo (Baba), who has held sway and unrelenting in Nigeria politics.

An observer remarked, on hearing the result of the Ogun Senate PDP loss for Baba and his daughter: 'It is a clear sign to Baba that he never won any election before, as he claimed in the past. He has seen the sign that he is a non-starter in politics and popularity among his people. To right the wrongs of the past must start with him and the people have expressed their wish at the polls, which they never did in the past 12 years under the watch of PDP. The signs show that we are moving, today, in the direction of democracy and will soon get there because we won't fold our hands and watch another rude intervention and hijack of the process by other political bullies. Baba has committed political suicide and the clout he claimed to wield is gone.'

Leftover battle
When Jega announced postponement of elections in the National Assembly constituencies, he had assured Nigerians that it would hold on April 26, the day for the governorship and state Houses of Assembly elections nationwide. That implies the battle for the dominance of the National Assembly will be concluded that day, with the prevailing parties pushing for more foothold. Should PDP extend its run that day, it would possibly have close to 70 senators and up to 200 House of Representatives members.

The message
With the expression of satisfaction nationwide, there is high expectation that today's presidential election would toe the same path, as that of National held last week. There were 117 reported cases of ballot box snatching out of about 110,000 used in the elections. That was a high performance rating, compared to the past, where over 70 percent of the boxes were hijacked, stolen at gunpoint and stuffed with ballots, as the results computed in most instances outnumbered the total voters registered in a particular location. Remember the world record rigging of Sagbama, in Rivers State, in 2003. In that election, about 70,000 voters registered at a particular place in that riverrine location. Years after the registration, election came up and 70, 000 turned up to cast votes. They, in addition, all voted the same party - PDP. No abstention, no invalid votes, no dissent, no protest votes.

Coming from a situation as that, even the one in Ogun State, in 2003, where not even a candidate voted Buhari in the entire state. In the botched 2007 Anambra State governorship election that was later voided by the Supreme Court, the total votes cast were more than the entire population of the state. Therefore, Nigerians are already jubilating that at last the good days would come one day.

With the commendation from international observers that for once, they witnessed an election in Nigeria, there are already speculations and maybe the outcome of last week would be good omen for Jonathan. The thinking is that Nigerians might have been endeared to this man, who did the impossible and conducted an election seen as clean.

Mazi Okoro Agwu, a voter said: 'If Jonathan conducts a credible election and maybe loses, he would be the best loser in history with a dignity greater than that of a winner. In fact, he can't be a loser after achieving credible electoral culture in Nigeria. But I am sure he would reap victory today as a repercussion of the tidy elections of last week. If the process of credibility is stretched till today, then we should be on our way to the holy places to canonise Jega and Jonathan. They would be called the Two Great Js. They will become the two patron saints of Nigerian democracy and we will owe them gratitude forever.'