$142 Billion Stolen, $2.5 Billion Recovered: Magu’s Monumental Failure –Additional Financial Mathematics
$142 billion dollars was stolen during the Jonathan presidency, from my exhaustive professional financial analysis, and only $2.5 billion dollars have been recovered by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). This is a paltry 1.6 % of the estimated stolen funds. In Nigerian educational and employment standards, 40 % are pass mark and1.6 % is monumental failure.
After five years of Buhari regime, all the EFCC and Independent Corrupt Persons Commission (ICPC) could recover was 1.6 % or $2.5 billion dollars ie N980 billion naira. Therefore, based on performance index, the sack of Ibrahim Magu as EFCC head is long overdue.
I have written in 2014 and made more additions in 2015 facts outlining how the $142 billion dollars was looted through oil deals, oil bunkering, oil theft, and more. Some of the analysis in the piece
‘Stolen $142 billion dollars in five years-in the Midst of National Poverty’ and a follow up ‘Additional Mathematics ‘ where I listed some of the $142 billion dollar leakages to include;
(1) $20 billion dollars missing in 18 months =$1.1 billion monthly x 60 months =$ 66 billion dollars
(2) $ 30 dollars per barrel above budget benchmark of $ 79 dollars not accounted for meant for excess crude account = $27 billion dollars
(3)$5 billion dollars lost annually to oil thieves =$0.41 billion monthly x 60 months=$ 25 billion dollars
(4) $1.5 billion dollars (N263 billion naira) lost to suspicious waiver on petroleum products in 9 months=$0.16 billion monthly x 60 months= $ 9.6billion dollars
(5) Subsidy Scam of 2011=$ 6.8 billion dollars
(6) Swiss-NNPC Oil Scam of 2013=$ 6.8 billion dollars
(7) Malabu Oil Scam of 2011=$1 billion dollars
Total probable missing/ stolen or unremitted Oil funds in 60 months = 142.2 billion dollars.
I restated in another analysis that Diezani Madueke loot alone is over $6 billion dollars.
I do not want to go into the reasons why Magu failed, and though I commended President Buhari for the Magu probe, in the piece titled ‘Magu Probe: Buhari and Unrecovered $142 billion dollars stolen Funds’ however, the President has provided a weak link in the supervision of persons under him.
If 1.6 % of stolen funds is recovered, using the Nigerian Factor, as the basis of the additional mathematics, it follows that about 8 % of the stolen funds are in the pockets of Buhari’s appointees.
This is the mathematics; a high profile political thief is caught through audit of embezzling N10 billion naira. The thief settles EFCC and high powered influencers with 10% of the stolen sum, the graft body recovers 2% of the stolen sum into the government coffers, the rest 88% is left for the thief to enjoy. If it is a low profile thief, the remittances to corrupt officials are upped to about 20%, 4% returned to the government and the looter has 76% to him.
Thus a thief caught with $10 billion naira, settles the graft bodies and influencers with N1 billion naira, returns N200million to the government accounts, and keeps N8.8 Billion naira to himself.
Therefore, using the estimate for the high profile thievery, for every billion recovered by the EFCC, the crook settled them with 5 times the amount, and went home with the rest for the future generations.
Therefore, if EFCC recovered only N980billion naira-following the mathematical trend of relooting in Nigeria-N980 billion x 5= N3.9 Trillion naira was used to settle high profile officials either in the office of the President, Vice-President, Attorney General or EFCC . Who collected all the trillions PDP looters gave as bribes to high profile government cronies.
Information at my disposal shows that at some points in time, some persons in the office of the Chief of Staff, Secretary to Government of the Federation, Vice President, Attorney General of the Federation, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and influential Emirs in the North collected various sums of bribes to ensure that the PDP looters go scot free, while remitting pittances, in the form of seized cash, properties, jewelries to the Federal Government.-all these without the knowledge of Buhari.
I want my international friends and partners who have expressed worries over the fate of the graft war in Nigeria to me in private, that my response to Buhari’s anti-graft war is as listed;
1. $142 billion dollars stolen under Jonathan, $2.5 billion recovered by Buhari = 1.6 percent
2. Relooted funds is five times of recovered funds-$2.5 billion x 5= $11.4 billion dollars or 8 percent
3. Unrecovered Funds is 90.4 % x $142 billion =$128 billion dollars
In conclusion, the anti-graft body recovered a paltry N980 billion naira, High profile government cronies and appointees, together with the anti-graft accomplices relooted N4.9 Trillion naira and left the thieves with N48 Trillion naira to themselves, families, concubines, and political malfeasance. These calculations are at the forex rate of N38 to a dollar.
Therefore, Buhari was either sick, sleeping or snoring while the relooting of recovered funds continued under his slumbering nose. Therefore, the fight against corruption is 1.6% successful.
President Buhari’s only achievement in the anti-corruption war was the Treasury Single Account TSA which mopped up to N1.3 trillion naira of annually stolen funds through various criminal accounts. I stated in the write-up titled ‘Plot to Oust Buhari: Vultures are Gathering over Murder of CAN Chairman’ that
“All these alliances against Jonathan ended the moment the Buhari presidency introduced the Treasury Single Account, TSA. TSA swallowed up over two thousand government accounts. NNPC alone reportedly had over 100 accounts, FIRS had over 50 accounts while Customs had over 70 through which the national treasury is piped to the private accounts of choice cabals including retired Presidents, retired military officers, traditional rulers, Emirs, top politicians and opinion leaders”.
I want my international partners to know that I pretend not to know those who relooted over $11.4 billion dollars, and gave the government a paltry $2.5 billion dollars, and allowed the remaining thieves to keep the remaining loot of $128 billion dollars while borrowing $ 22 billion dollars to solve Nigeria’s problem.
There is no economic sense in allowing looters to possess $128 billion dollars while begging the world for $ 22 billion dollars loan. There is no sense in using high profile government cronies and traditional rulers to reloot $11.4 billion dollars while seeking for double of the relooted sums as foreign loans.
President Buhari should wake up and fight corruption. He has slept enough, he has snored enough. Failure to do so urgently, the Buhari legacy built upon anti-corruption from his military days will be thrown into shit hole by appointees, friends, cronies and associates. The recovery of $2.5 billion dollars out of $142 billion dollars is a failed war against corruption.
Obinna Akukwe , Columnist, Financial Expert via [email protected],@obinnaakukwe
cc: Secretary General, United Nations
Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
President, World Bank