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Four Reasons Boko Haram Attacks are Increasing- Counter-Insurgency Experts

By Sahel Standard

Many Nigerians are worried about renewed insurgents’ attacks. Here are the main reasons for the upsurge.

Abuja-Nov 13,2016-Contrary to recent reports, upsurge in Boko Haram attacks have been linked to four main factors by counter terrorism experts.

Some reports had linked the recent high profile attacks to ransom paid the insurgents which allegedly enabled them to purchase more weapons.

Several counter terrorism experts contacted by Sahel Standard however disputed the reports positing instead that four key reasons are responsible .

First according to them was that this is the onset of dry season when guerilla operatives can move more freely and launch attacks. Raining season is said to be associated with slow down in mobility weakening insurgents” operations.

Another reason identified by these experts include the mass movements of internally displaced people which allows for insurgents mixture with civilian population and encouraged movements of sect commanders disguising as IDPs.

The ongoing resettlement of IDP is also cited as a reason as movement across recently liberated areas exposes both troops and IDPs to risk as such areas are still largely unsafe .

The other reason according to the experts was the desperation of the insurgents to break out of military encirclement to secure more supplies and weapons. This is cited as a strategic reasons for some high profile attacks designed to distract the military.

It was also noted that most of the challenges facing the military operations was due to failure of military top brass to coordinate and share intelligence .

“They ignore intelligence reports if it does not emanate from their service . There is rivalry and ego issue”,one of the source said.

Beyond the above,Sahel Standard was told that there are external factors responsible for the upsurge.

One is what a source called the huge number of returnee fighters from Libya following the loss of ground by ISiS in the war torn nation.

Many of such returnees are said to be heading towards both Mali and Lake Chad basin ,deepening insurgents strength in the area.

A related reason according to the experts was that the insurgents still have easy route passing in and out of Nigerian Cameroonian border.Hit and run attacks in both Nigeria and Cameroon are said to be on the increase.

Another expert also cited lack.of coordination on political approach to the insurgency by the Lake Chad basin countries .

While they all agreed to set up a joint military task force,they are different in their approach to the issue of amnesty for the insurgents.

Chad is already implementing an amnesty programme said to be weakening the insurgency in that country.

A recent report said close to a thousand insurgents have surrender in Chad following a government amnesty .

Nigeria and Cameroon are however opposed to such policy due public opposition to such move.