Beautiful Kemi Adeosun, Nigeria's Ugly Economy and Economic Kwashiorkor
FACT: We are 'technically' in a recession.
FACT-CHECK: Kemi informed us that Buhari's administration inherited the
biggest economy in Africa
REALITY-CHECK: The Buhari administration have plunged that economy down the
abyss of recession.
Call the first two assertions a contradiction, you may be right, refer to
them as metaphors, your may not be far from the truth. They may even be
hyperbole, who knows, this government is used to poking fun at serious
issues. It's no more news that we are in a recession. The minister of
finance has informed us that we are 'technically' in a recession. What does
it mean; our economy is contracting. Imagine a child that is suffering from
kwashiorkor, instead of growing, the child is depreciating because such a
child lacks adequate nourishment. Our economy is suffering economic
kwashiorkor. You do not need to be an expert neither do you need to be in
the opposition nor dislike the president to know that we will be here
approximately one year after May 29th 2019. However, the administration has
spent its first year in office heaping blame at the doorstep of the Dr.
Goodluck Jonathan's presidency accusing that administration of profligacy,
monumental corruption, battering our image home and abroad, recklessness
and mismanagement and if care is not taken; they might have blamed him for
the fall in oil prices too.
Sometime in 2014, I carried out a research on energy outlook for Saudi
Arabia. In the process, I learned about shale gas and how the US was
harnessing that alternative source of oil to orchestrated significant
changes to global oil supply by depending on local production to shore up
imports. I learned that the US could even overtake Saudi Arabia as the
world’s top oil exporter.While the predicted year for this paradigm shift
was 2017, some believed it would happen earlier while others thought it was
a myth. I would classify Buhari and his team to belong to the later group
or perhaps ignorant of such knowledge that was in public domain. The signs
started to emerge with the US lifting embargo on oil exportation and shale
gas oil production rigs increasingly dotting the US landscape with positive
impact on local US crude oil production. It was not rocket science to know
that the fall in oil price was good for Western countries which are the
major consumers of oil from Organisation of Petroleum Exporting countries
(OPEC) which Nigeria is an active member. All they needed was some
alternatives like shale gas and Tesla, the electricity car producer and oil
prices will plunge. Given the recession which has hammered their economies
in the past few years, countries like the US, needed some relief for their
economies to rebound completely from the 2008 Great Recession. A
presidential aspirant in an OPEC country should have a clear strategy to
counter such inevitable future which portends negative outcomes for his or
her home country.
During the elections in Nigeria, Buhari didn't have any visible economic
team. Who knows, he did have some invisible squad which the physical eyes
cannot behold. I want to believe so because the Minister of Information,
Lai Muhammad recently asked Nigerians to look 'closely' if they wanted to
see Buhari's economic plan which ordinarily should be very obvious, well
documented and available in soft and hard copies. The president won the
elections based on the promise to wage war on corruption, bring security
for Nigerians against the rampaging Boko Haram terrorist, revitalize the
power sector and create employment for the teeming Nigerian youth as
reflected in his inaugural address. While this is not a comprehensive
assessment of the Buhari's presidency, I want to categorically state that
the outcomes we have today are not strange. Any person who has observed the
Nigerian polity since May 29th, 2015 should have the inkling that we were
heading for a cul-de-sac. Funny as it may seem, the first few weeks of this
administration, there were improvements in areas such as power and
petroleum products availability, given the narrative from the presidency
and APC which demonized everything about 2011-2015, they coined a term
known as the 'body language' of Buhari which was attributed with the
magical powers of keeping everything in good shape and working well as
expected. Those who felt concerned shouted themselves hoarse that such a
ridiculous attribution spelt doom in the near future
Then the president started his foreign trips with the fleet of presidential
jets that he had condemned when his predecessor used them. According to his
aides, he was up and about, flying up and down from one country to another,
repairing our battered image. Whenever he came back, his senior media aide
released a press statement which he started with 'take away' from our dear
president visit to the US, France, and many other countries he visited.
Soon after, he was airborne again and trust Nigerians, they nicknamed him
the 'flying president', 'ajala the traveller' and many others monikers
which the Nigerian people found amusing and a way to ease the pressures of
the economy which was gathering momentum. Either the president on his
visits was soliciting for funds, to buy arms or he was negotiating with
creditors to lend us some money. Back home in Nigeria, there was no
political leadership, he had faith in civil servants, the permanent
secretaries whose traditional, conventional and appropriate role in public
service is administrationn and management; strategic management and
development of the president's and his party’s polices which these civil
servants are not in a position to carry out were left to them. They are not
supposed to be partisan but to serve any government that emerged; they were
made to become political leaders in their various ministries against best
practices and expectations.
It took President Buhari six months to appoint his ministers; even at that,
there was no comprehensive economic plan, there were no economic advisers,
our president in all his numerous foreign trips did not embark on one trip
which was largely economy stimulating without incurring debts. He went to
China to ask for $2 billion loan instead of to seek long term Chinese
investments in terms of industry and partnerships. The railway which he
renegotiated predated his presidency and was almost at completion. I would
not want to dwell much on the innuendos of Buhari because that would fill a
book which anyone can title, “how to destroy an economy in one year”. The
Naira was defended like an eagle guards its offsprings, our president told
us often that he was waiting for people to convince him to implement well
articulated policies to make the Naira market friendly, that was a
president who contested for 12 years before clinching the highest office of
the land without any idea on what to do about our Naira. Investor's funds
were trapped in Nigeria, they couldn’t repatriate their funds, and a policy
that is not favourable could see their investments tumble in value so those
who wanted to come and invest kept their distance. Those who were already
here sought for ways to leave before it got worse. Investors wouldn't know
at what exact value they are transacting and what happens when they came
into Nigeria and this means an exit strategy was not clear. No sane foreign
investor ventures a foreign direct investment (FDI) recipient country
without a well articulated and clear exit strategy.
Let's move on. The lamentations won't save the situation. However, let's
juxtapose Buhari's approach to governance with that of Theresa May, the new
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Imagine Theresa May became Prime
Minister and spent one year lamenting and bemoaning the Brexit and
apportioning blame to David Cameron for not working hard enough to keep UK
in the European Union within her first year. Imagine there was there was no
stimuli for the UK economy, no serious economic plan to counter the
consequences of the plummeting pound which hit its lowest ebb in 30 years.
Imagine she delayed appointment of her ministers to six months after being
named Prime Minister and then allow the economy to go on autopilot for one
year while travelling the world to talk to friends of Britain without any
concrete plans to sustain the economy. Within that period she would just
dish out the funds she met in the treasury and trigger Scotland to reignite
their secession bid creating divisions and resents. What do you think would
happen to the UK economy after one year? If you can answer that, then look
‘closely’ as suggested by Lai Muhammad so that you see what happened to
Nigeria between the periods of May 2015- May 2016?
After suffering similar fate with Nigeria, Britain boosted its economy
because the new government is pragmatic and visionary. Businesses were in
trouble, what did the Prime Minister do, instead of bemoaning the Brexit,
she faced the economy squarely, appointed all the relevant minsters and
ensured there were stimuli for the economy and the tide turned in a few
weeks after the Brexit. Last week, the UK attracted $32 billion investment
in a takeover of a company by Japanese investors. May's ministers are
moving around assuring friends and allies that they are on top of the
situation. The foreign minister of UK met with his US counterpart and
briefed the press. It was after addressing the economy and internal matters
that 'Mother' Theresa started travelling to the EU to meet Germany, France
and other influential EU countries to negotiate and lament Brexit. What was
the approach here, the exact opposite, the economy was abandoned and what
we did for one year was corruption war and blaming the past administration,
Naira policy was on pause for over year without any market-friendly policy.
Buhari was visiting countries not to attract investment but to bash the
Jonathan’s administration, borrow money and buy arms. He didn’t move around
with our business community to attract and negotiate deals. I remember
Buhari embarassing a business mogul, because he dared to smuggle his way
into Buhari’s entourage and use Buhari’s image presumably as the president
to woo investors. It was just a matter of time before we arrived here
today. If you know anything about management, you would know that any
business left for one year on autopilot will not remain the same. And the
most probable outcome is depreciation instead of appreciation.
Ask me the major factor behind the recession; I would answer President
Muhammadu Buhari, not the fall in oil prices. He can go on blaming the past
government for not saving enough for him to come and plunder and become a
lazy president, his actions and inaction in the past one year is enough to
wreck any economy – US, UK, Germany, South Korea, Japan, Chile, Canada,
Switzerland- just name any country. There is no country that his undefined
approach to governance which defies commonsense and does not follow any
theory or model of free market economy that will survive Buhari in the past
one year. In the near future, people in democracies may tell their
citizens, “don't elect a 'Buhari' for us”, if we find ourselves in 2019
with the status quo.
I admire our minister of finance because she is physically attractive, I
like her, she is beautiful and has a very infectious British accent,
however, as we speak, our economy has defied her beauty and is instead
getting uglier by the day. I would not blame her entirely because it takes
a commander-in-chief to set out his vision for the economy, get his
economic team to set out the economic plan and then work with the minister
of finance who should be a member of the economic team to achieve the
mission set out in detailed policy directives.
I hope the president realizes that he is the trouble with Nigeria as one
foreigner commentator said the other time; 'Buhari is Nigeria's problem,
not its solution'. I hope the president can make amends soonest; Nigerians
need some reprieve from their contracting economy. Our economy requires
some combination of therapy from a team of doctors led by the chief medical
officer, in this case President Dr. Buhari to help our economy recover from
this economic kwashiorkor.
……………………………………
ThankGod Ukachukwu
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