RiskMap 2016: West African nations striving to escape the commodities downturn in an era of increasingly transnational security threats & issues
African governments will need to be resilient to withstand the electoral, constitutional and financial pressures that will test governments across the region in 2016. This is one of the key messages of RiskMap 2016, published today by global business risk consultancy Control Risks (www.ControlRisks.com). RiskMap highlights the most significant underlying trends in global risk and security, and provides a detailed view from the markets that will matter most in 2016.
The shifts in political power as witnessed during the 2015 elections in Nigeria and Burkina Faso (which had been regarded as the start of a wave of political revolution across the continent, where “people power” rather than cronyism, nepotism and corruption determined the outcome of elections) will not continue in 2016.
RiskMap 2016 expects the slow growth experienced across the continent in 2015 due to the fall in commodity prices, a wave of currency depreciations, weakening terms of trade and restrictions on access to forex to drag on into the first few months of 2016, before a modest pick up as commodity prices partially recover and economies begin to diversify.
The frequency of election related violence; extremism and terrorist attacks, maritime piracy (particularly in the gulf of guinea) and criminality in the region will continue to be a threat to stability. Due to the close interconnectedness among countries in West Africa, there is likely to be an increase in the number of conflicts spilling over boarders such as the fight against Boko Haram which has spilled over the Nigerian borders into Chad and Cameroon. This will mean that reducing conflict and promoting stability will be high on the agenda of policy makers in region for 2016.
Tom Griffin, Senior Managing Director, Control Risks West Africa, comments:
“While we anticipate governments surviving pressures on them in 2016, there may be heightened volatility and tension during sensitive periods such as elections, and the political environments they shape are evolving. This requires investors to understand fully the drivers of change and their potential to impact the business environment, and to be prepared for alterations to posture and strategy.”
Country specific outlook
For the full report including essays and regional reports, please click here ( https://www.controlrisks.com/webcasts/studio/2015-GENERAL/Riskmap-2016/media/2015-12-08-RM-REPORT-2016-EMBARGO.pdf ) . To view the Map please follow this link ( https://www.controlrisks.com/webcasts/studio/2015-GENERAL/Riskmap-2016/RM-2016-maps-PDFs/RiskMap_Map_2016_UK_WEB-LR.pdf ).
For the map graphic or for further information please contact:
Control Risks Omoyemi Akinrinade-Tarfa Marketing & business development executive, West Africa. [email protected] 234 1271 3940 +234 809 042 9430
Notes to Editors: About Control Risks Control Risks (www.ControlRisks.com) is a global risk consultancy specialising in political, security and integrity risk that has more than 30 years of experience working in Africa. Control Risks serves global companies that are new to Africa and organisations that know the continent well and are looking to expand their African business. With a team of over 150 consultants in West Africa, Control Risks has unrivalled experience in helping organisations throughout their investment and operational cycle in Africa and provides clients with high-quality support in entering new markets, realising opportunities and building resilience capabilities to manage risk in rapidly changing environments. www.controlrisks.com
Annex: Risk rating changes
Middle East and North Africa: