NIGERIA'S POST-ELECTION FUTURE IS BLEAK NO MATTER WHO WINS

Nigerians and their friends should start to prepare for a bleak future now. People who read tea leaves would see that no matter who wins the 2015 election the future is dire. This is because Nigeria does not have Core Beliefs that bind the country together and does not have strong institutions and institutional loyalties that could hold a fledgling nation together.

In more advanced countries these core beliefs may include the belief that the country is indivisible as often demonstrated by USA from before the civil war to present or more recently by the United Kingdom on the issue of Scotland's attempted secession during which all rival political parties campaigned against a divided UK.

Most Nigerians in private conversations think it would be better if the country is broken into smaller pieces. Ask SW, SE, SS, NW, NE or NC citizens and you will see a consensus.

Strong institutions in these more developed nations often include Electoral Commissions, Courts, Legislature, Census Board. Any incursion into these institutions by another organ is resisted by its members and it does not matter by who. In Nigeria these institutions wither each time a strong character leans on them. They will bend if political party leaders, presidents, foreign governments, wealthy individuals at home or abroad, anything at all, lean on them.

Given all of the above, Nigeria's future is quite bleak.

Here are possible scenarios after the election:
If GEJ wins:
1. Boko Haram would escalate its insurgency and would have ready recruits to help but the Nigerian Federal Forces would more readily use lethal force in fighting them since a freed GEJ could now act without thinking of political consequences

2. A dictatorship could result as APC may disintegrate and members seek greener pastures in PDP thus making it possible for GEJ to rule without a strong opposition.

3. Political North would be sad indeed. This sadness could lead to riots and destruction of lives and property and possibly to the exodus of many southerners especially Christians which would fracture Nigeria's already weak structure.

4. With a weak structure the currently robust (?) economic growth would weaken especially as EU economy which Nigeria has strong connections with is still softening.

5. A coup-d'état could be attempted. It is not likely to be successful but would still destabilize Nigeria for a long time. A coup would be the worst of both worlds as it would activate MENDS and encourage BK.

6. Etc.
If GMB wins:
1. The political south would see this as GMB's second successful coup d'état this time using BK as the weapon.

2. SS and SE will be very sad and feel cheated by a born-to-rule north. MENDS had already sworn that it would go back to work and could attempt a secession and disrupt oil production. With oil, as the real sponsor of Nigeria's economy disturbed, economic growth would screech to a halt making life near impossible. Oil theft would increase.

3. Boko Haram insurgency would continue and might be fought with kinder gloves. Although GMB may have access to the leadership and be amenable to negotiate a deal, the terms of the deal would not be acceptable to GMB. BK is not GMB's baby but a branch of the wider Islamic war and take their directives from far away.

4. A coup d'état is possible just as it is possible in a GEJ win. It is not likely to be successful but would still destabilize Nigeria for a long time. A coup would be the worst of both worlds as it would make BH much more deadly and determined.

5. PDP could fall apart as members would seek greener pastures in APC making it easy for GMB who is more used to dictatorial structure to go back to his tried and tested modus operandi. He would not have a messy opposition to contend with.

6. Etc.
What is obvious is that there will be no change no matter the outcome of a possible 2015 election. Corruption would increase in each case as politicians and their sponsors would move to recover their expenses. GMB by his own account is already in debt to the tune of N20 million just to buy the nomination form. By the end of the election he must have incurred twice the debt. It must come from somewhere.

Contrary to the wish of the West, led by US and UK, insurgency will not cease and the West's pursuit of a regime change in Nigeria would have the same result as in Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan etc.

Is there a way out of this quagmire?
(a) We shall hope that this analysis is completely wrong. That one win would be better than the other.

(b) That Messer's Gumel, Ojutalayo, Ekwueme, Abarahamuogu Madu et al know what they are saying.

(c) Or as is normal in Nigeria “we leave everything to God.

Written by Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba.