And you think APC will vote for the General as president
On a serious note, nobody wants somebody who will kick his butts by exposing his atrocities and that brings up the issue of imposition of leader by the outgoing office holder or power brokers. It is of no doubt that in Nigeria today, there is no constituted state that does not suffer imposition of leader either by the outgoing incumbent or by the political big weights in the state or party. Virtually all political parties in the country whether currently with power or not, whether at state or national level have taken part in this anti-democratic system. It is obvious that leader imposition has its ugly impacts on the democracy against true provision of dividends of democracy through the much needed human and infrastructural developments at all levels. The practice of imposition of leader is of the major reasons why Nigeria is where it is today and this remains a topic of another day as this is not the main context of this piece.
The much awaited national congresses of the two popular political parties in the country have come and gone with each producing their presidential flag bearer for 2015 presidential contest. The opposition party (All Progressive Congress) produced the former head of state General Muhammadu Buhari through a presidential primary election held during their national congress in Lagos state which was keenly contested by the other aspirants; Governor Rabiu kwankwanso of Kano state, former vice president Atiku Abubakar, Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo state and founder of Leadership newspaper, Sam Nda-Isaiah, having polled 3340 votes as reported to emerge the winner. On the other side, the ruling party (Peoples Democratic Party) in their own special national congress held in Abuja, produced and endorsed President Goodluck Jonathan a sole contestant for the exalted presidential position who is seeking for re-election.
Obviously, the political battle line has been drawn between president GEJ of PDP and general MB of APC as to who occupies the nation's number one political power seat come 2015. In the determination of where the political pendulum ball will swing to, is it to general Buhari or to president Goodluck, some factors will surely determine the direction of the pendulum ball.
The former head of state, general Muhammadu Buhari is known by all to be contesting for the position of the president for the fourth times after contesting and losing for three consecutive times (2003, 2007 and 2011), while president Goodluck Jonathan is only seeking for re-election to the position in fulfillment of his constitutional right to complete his eight years of leadership.
Elections in Nigeria are known to always be political influenced by the smart political party with strong structures nationwide through the use of many anti-democratic systems especially with the recent disenfranchisement of eligible voters in the opposition strong hold. More so, in Nigerian political settings where good democracy struggles to stand firm, the voters at the grassroots are easily influenced by these political elites with material things.
One will say that with the massive supports and orderliness given to APC and their presidential flag bearer by the delegates to the national congress with the extension of the country's stakeholders that the long desired change has finally come through APC. The change seems to be here with the emergence of APC, but I doubt whether the wishes of the country men and women clamoring for change will prevail at the end as i see great political betrayal within the house of APC towards the actualization of the change in our democracy.
The reason why general Buhari will find it difficult to win the 2015 presidential election is not far-fetched, though not because of his ethno-religious fundamentalism, post 2011 presidential election crises that erupted due to his defeat by president Goodluck Jonathan or what have you, rather it is because of his outright position against corruption in the country which is the reason he seems to be loved by all but not wanted at the political helms of the country. Buhari during his military government from 1983 to 1985, fought and instilled discipline and corruption free practices in the country through his War Against Indiscipline (WAI) which led to the conviction and execution of many public officers perceived to be involved in corrupt practices by his government and that event still lives with the people till date. But this is a new Nigeria of civilian government and not a military Nigeria of the past. Will the same political show be repeated by the almighty Buhari this time with his well recognized corrupt political associates in the house of APC? No man in his upright thinking will like to train what will bit him at last and that is why APC will not vote for general Buhari for president despite their massive supports that brought him up for the race.
In Nigeria, no political party whether ruling or opposition party is free of harboring corrupt political members who have embezzled public treasures whether in the past or at present and APC of Buhari is indicted in the act. Para venture he wins next year, don't tell me that if Buhari still possess that anti-corruption fighting spirit of 1983 that he won't probe and convict these corrupt political members in his party which Bola Tinubu and his cohorts will not escape and this will bring the fear of unknown in house of APC, except this Buhari is of new Nigeria and not of old Nigeria.
The politicians whether in PDP, APC or any other political parties in the country have in one way or the other looted the treasures of the country thus depriving the general masses the dividends of democracy and Bola Tinubu is not free from this corrupt practices and will resist any system of probe by Buhari government for the fear of ending up in jail.
For the fear of unknown, many corrupt APC political big weights would vote for PDP instead of their APC, knowing too well that voting PDP back to power will guarantee them continue freedom from being sent to jail, thereby leaving Buhari and his light weight supporters to their fate. Again, voting Buhari as president is like a suicide mission to the opposition party members and to the nation as any probe and conviction of any political heavy weight will paralyze the country more than the menace of boko haram insurgency as the supporters of any convicted politician will definitely fight the government.
The politics of 2015 general elections will be the one with careful political calculations and fear of becoming political irrelevant. But be more assured that APC will fight cat and rain towards ensuring that their present occupying states remain with the APC while setting up more fight to win more states, but will become the political tortoise by selling their party to PDP at the national level.
2015 general elections is just election between the fear of conviction on corruption charges, becoming political irrelevant for life and assurance of freedom from being convicted and of course betrayal of the opposition candidate by the opposition.