EKITI ELECTION AND THE BAND WAGON EFFECT
(Lessons from a seasoned politician since 1983)
I write this article from my personal point of view without affixing it to any political, social or governmental platforms. However, when one is known as a Zikist, you could see a similitude where he happens to be former party chairman or an aspirant for political positions.
Jaws are dropping, people are shocked and some are questioning what happened? Some still don't believe that All Progressive Congress – APC can loose election in the South-West, particularly in a state where they maintain dominance in all political positions. My question to these people is this – 'You are still crying over the rain that beat APC in Ondo, and now Ekiti, the rain that is gathering over the skies of Osun State, who is it going to beat on August 9. The same APC of course, and the reason being that the party are yet to discover where this rain started beating them.
Lagos and Imo States as the final Bus-Stop for APC.
There is no argument that APC will put up a strong fight to retain Lagos State in about seven months time, but the band wagon effect tide maybe too strong by then for APC to stop an impending defeat. Please observe with me that all gubernatorial elections held in Southern Nigeria in recent time that went to opposition political parties, are states that their governors are in the good books of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), or PDP friendly governors such as, Gov. Adams Oshiomohle – Edo, Dr. Segun Mimiko – Ondo and Mr. Peter Obi – of Anambra States respectively.
Governor Fashola is an outgoing governor and a very good man, on an average, he is highly respected, highly admired by all, on a personal note I consider him my very good friend, but his second term performance remains the only bearing for his party APC to campaign with.
And if you conduct a poll among average voters in Lagos State without party or tribal affiliation on Governor Fashola's second term performance, 60 percent or more will score it a mere pass or near failure out of respect. In an active election, 60 percent or more is landslide, yet you need just one vote above other competitors to win an election.
Depending on how the political actors in Lagos State plays their roles, Lagos as it stands now, is up for grabs and any body's game. However the state is tilting towards change and favours Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in consideration that their would be presidential candidate (Goodluck Jonathan) is expected to sweep Southern States with Lagos State inclusive on sectional and religious considerations mainly, while APC is expected to single handily pick their guber candidate (an act that Lagosians recently abhors), APC do not have an incumbent governor running for the seat of which his performance may speak for him, wont have a Southerner running for presidency, in a nation where Southerners generally do not fancy Northern presidential projects, since Northerners have held power for nearly 40 years without much to show for it.
The Lagos State scenario is quite different from that of Imo State, but the election that produced Governor Rochas Okorocha was a close shave, though the governor maybe acting as if it was a walk-over, he is facing an imminent failure at the 2015 poll from all ramifications, except he dumps APC for APGA or PDP.
Governor Rochas is from a populous zone, Orlu senatorial zone, but because Ndigbo generally have rejected and dejected APC, political fortunes of Dr. Chris Ngige in the last Anambra guber race will be his portion.
If APC loses Lagos and Imo States, the party is likely to wound up as a national party, while band wagon effect experienced in Ekiti will continue to hunt APC.
Nigeria and challenges of maintaining one indissoluble and indivisible nation in the face of politically motivated violence.
If you still do not believe that bombings and acts of terror in Nigeria is politically motivated, then you you need to tell us why they are increasing the number of their bombings in Nigeria as the election dates are closing in.
However, these bombings are not enough to provoke major crisis in a nation that have tested war before and magnanimously rejected it.
The collapse of the nation is not feasible in 2015 despite western reports, but violence will decrease when President Jonathan wins reelection.
It may help, if the international communities, President Barack Obama, Nigeria media organisations to stop giving these terrors and acts of terrors media attention and starts playing down or ignoring these acts of terror on front pages of news papers or on major national or international televisions and other media outlets.
Written By Chief Udo Udeogaranya