Moment to Reflect by Oguchi Nkwocha, MD

A storm rages. A flash of lightning announces the arrival of the following frightful thunder clap. It reveals briefly but with the clarity of a thousand daylights how and where the feckless ship of state called Nigeria tosses precariously, caught in the black void of the vortex of a perilous sea. Is a path revealed too?

After joining the chorus of a mesmerized populace turned against President Jonathan, the people have a little remaining sense to ask, “What now”? The same journalists who were jailed by Buhari now prefer Buhari? The same peoples who were brutalized by Buhari now prefer Buhari? The same Christians in Nigeria brutalized and ostracized by Buhari's fanatical religious extremism now prefer Buhari? Those same mothers and fathers, same brothers and sisters who just 4 years ago lost their loved ones to Buhari-incited mobs after Buhari handily lost another Presidential election, yes, those ones, they now prefer Buhari? The same elite who were stifled, battered and bullied with state-sponsored and state-managed forces by Buhari now prefer Buhari? What about those harpers of “democracy”? Given Buhari's unapologetic and bullish autocracy, the same people shouting, “Democracy!”, “democracy!” now prefer Buhari? Boko Haram and Buhari want Sharia imposed on all and now, people prefer Buhari?

Of course, there is brief relative silence now as people pause to gauge what they are doing and the effect of the mass hypnosis that's pushing them towards Buhari. It's probably an exercise in futility by now: the train might have left the station already—just might have. What's left at this time is rationalization: for example, so-called need to change guards (when it is still the same gladiators using the same weapons in the same arena, just merely changing their banners); or need to fight corruption, even when the victims are still poor and powerless, and the perpetrators are all still there—having been corruptly “selected” to continue to be in charge, while the conditions which promote corruption remain untamed into the foreseeable future, regardless of who rocks in Aso or which party hypocritically claims to exhibit less hypocrisy. Having to rationalize a “choice” only speaks more about the “choice-maker” than the available options.

Here's a little revelation of a possible path. Buhari wins by hook, by crook or by whatever it takes. Buhari suffers the same fate as Yar'Adua, allowing Aso Rock to go back to his erstwhile South-West deputy—if the constitution is followed. (Obasanjo is banking on this; why? This speaks to his known and intriguing characteristic irrationality). But, as with Yar'Adua, the Northerners refuse, and this time around, really refuse, and keep Aso with whatever force and junta they can muster—and they really can, regardless of what the constitution (what constitution?) says.

In the instance of a North-South conflict because of this scenario of either a win by Buhari or later default to his deputy, or refusal by the North to follow the constitution in case of the latter, don't count on South-West siding with the rest of the South. Check your history to learn the patterns, if you have any doubts. A win by Jonathan will not change this equation either should the expected North-South conflict materialize.

What emerges in the next several weeks is anyone's guess; but, there should be no guessing as to what the people will be feeling—are feeling: not good. Nigeria has gotten herself into this fix of a situation where she is like (and my sincerest apologies for this analogy) a pregnant woman; but this is not a healthy pregnancy with the attendant anticipation and expectations, as people might like to think. This is a pregnancy from Hell carrying a dead fetus wherein the normal and natural signals to initiate labor are not there. Do you get the picture yet?

The best course of action is (and has always been) to accept, respect and find a way to work with the fixed, pre-existent natural fault lines which characterize what is called Nigeria; not to fight those lines or worse still, pretend to ignore them. There can and should be handshakes and bridges across those lines when and where such are mutual. But pretending and acting like they don't exist or are not significant or not important leads to one thing: people will continually trip on the lines and fall into the faults, with predictable anguish. This storm presents an opportunity to come to senses. And to do the right thing.

Oguchi Nkwocha, MD
Nwa Biafra.
A Biafran Citizen
[email protected]

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Articles by Oguchi Nkwocha, MD