Jonathan Vs Buhari: How Nigerians Will Vote

The presidential elections holding on March 28 th 2015 will be one to be remembered by all Nigerians, this is the first time, the ruling party (PDP) is facing a real opposition (APC). President Jonathan is running for re-election, this is an election I liken to the Obama re-election in 2012, it will be too close to call, there are battle-grounds which will decide the winner of this election, this article tends to bring an insight to how Nigerians will vote, it's a prediction culled from so much research work, which includes Previous voting patterns for both presidential elections and other elections, opinion polls carried online and by toll, campaign crowd and figures, decampment of political bigwigs and Most importantly the General feel of the public in the areas concerned. This write-up has taken so much weeks of research to do and I hope most people will use this as a template as most countries produce an analysis of how voting will be before election day, the state by state analysis of this election will be taken based on an average voter turnout of 70-80%.

Abia State: PVCs Collected: 1,183,127
This state will be an easy win for President Jonathan, considering the sitting government is PDP and he enjoys overwhelming support from the state, Mrs. Patience Jonathan is also from this state and like the 2011 election, Abians will vote massively for president Jonathan.

Verdict: Goodluck Jonathan (PDP)
Adamawa State:  PVCs Collected: 1,381,571
President Jonathan won this state the last time, but he won this state when he had support of the then PDP Governor, Murtala Nyako, this state had its fair share of judiciary action last year and will be a battle ground for the two parties, the PDP is growing bigger in the state as many APC state executives have declared support for Nuhu Ribadu and he may rally many votes in the state for President Jonathan, President Jonathan should get at least 25% in this state, but considering this is the home state of Ex Vice President Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (Turaki Adamawa) and the massive support he enjoys in the state, with his support, General Buhari should nick the win in this state

Verdict: Too Close to Call (Battle Ground).
Akwa Ibom State: PVCs Collected: 1,587,566
Akwa Ibom gave President Jonathan over 90% votes last election and even if the number may be slightly reduced due to protest votes, this should be an easy win for President Jonathan.

Verdict: Goodluck Jonathan (PDP)
Anambra State: PVCs Collected: 1,658,967
Anambra should be another win state for President Jonathan, the current Governor Willie Obiano and his Party APGA declared support for him and even launched an NGO for him Join Jonathan Journey (JJJ), Ex Governor Peter Obi is also from this state and is the vice Chairman South for President Jonathan's campaign, the only APC force in the state which will swing some votes towards APC is Sen.Chris Ngige who is also running for re-election.

Verdict: Goodluck Jonathan (PDP)
Bauchi State: PVCs Collected: 1,967,081
This state should be a comfortable win for General Buhari; he won with over 80% of votes here in the last election and even stopped President Jonathan from getting the required 25%.

Verdict: Muhammadu Buhari (APC)
Bayelsa State: PVCs Collected: 548,585
The home state of President Jonathan and the state with the least amount of registered voters, every vote still matters, it should be a relaxed victory for president Jonathan, General Buhari will get some votes here too due to support of Ex Governor and senatorial Candidate Mr. Timipre Sylva.

Verdict: Goodluck Jonathan (PDP)
Benue State: PVCs Collected: 1,607,800
Home State to Sen. David Mark, and a ruling PDP state, this is a state which has enlightened voters, Sen. Mark and Gov. Suswam will want to win the state for president Jonathan but remember Sen. Barnabas Gemade decamped to APC, and APC has Sen. George Akume, this will be a battle-ground, a slight win is predicted for President Jonathan here.

Verdict: Goodluck Jonathan (PDP)
Borno State: PVCs Collected: 1,407,777
The votes from this state will tell a story, a state which has been worst hit by insurgency. This is an APC controlled state, General Buhari should easily win this state like he did in the previous election and might prevent President Jonathan from getting the required 25%, unless Ex Governor Ali modu sheriff does enough to swindle votes to the PDP.

Verdict: Muhammadu Buhari (APC)
Cross-River State: PVCs Collected: 983,968
Another easy win for President Jonathan as this is a fully controlled PDP state; General Buhari might not muster up to 25% in this state.

Verdict: Goodluck Jonathan (PDP)
Delta State: PVCs Collected: 1,939,952
President Jonathan should win easily here, they voted overwhelmingly for him last time here, and APC Gubernatorial Candidate in the state O'tega Emerhor may swing some votes to APC here.

Verdict: Goodluck Jonathan (PDP)
Ebonyi State: PVCs Collected: 848,392
Another easy win for President Jonathan, might receive some protest votes from aggrieved PDP members in the state.

Verdict: Goodluck Jonathan (PDP)
Edo State: PVCs Collected: 1,230,566
Another battle-ground state considering the crisis that has been going on in the state for the past year, currently ruled by the APC, but President Jonathan enjoys support in this state and has major stakeholders in the state like PDP BOT Chairman, Chief Tony Anenih, President Jonathan should win slightly in this state and General Muhammadu Buhari to try and secure 25% of votes here.

Verdict: Goodluck Jonathan (PDP)
Ekiti State: PVCs Collected: 522,107
Another battle ground, President Jonathan won this state slightly in the previous election under the watch of the then Governor Kayode Fayemi, and now under present PDP governor Ayo Fayose, the numbers from the just held gubernatorial elections in the state might paint a picture, a slight win is predicted for President Jonathan, with General Buhari getting the required 25%.

Verdict: Goodluck Jonathan (PDP)
Enugu State: PVCs Collected: 1,223,606
This is one state President Jonathan can start counting for as it is a more than sure PDP state, the state which has no opposition whatsoever, President Jonathan will win very comfortably in the state under the watch of Governor Sullivan Chime.

Verdict: Goodluck Jonathan (PDP)
FCT: PVCs Collected: 569,109
The Capital of the country and the seat of power, they will definitely tell us who they want to be neighbors with in 2015, this is a battle ground and it's too close to call.

Verdict: Too Close to call (Battle Ground)
Gombe State: PVCs Collected: 1,070,725
General Buhari will confidently win this state like he normally does, with the help of Ex-Governor Danjuma Goje, General Buhari will win majority of votes here, and President Jonathan might be able to get the required 25% here with the help of sitting PDP Governor, Ibro Dankwambo.

Verdict: Muhammadu Buhari
Imo State: PVCs Collected: 1,707,449
The home state of Governor Rochas Okorocha, another battle-ground in the south east, but the PDP has too many stakeholders in the state to lose the election here, it will be a surprise if APC gets majority here, but may luckily get the required 25% here.

Verdict: Goodluck Jonathan (PDP)
Jigawa State: PVCs Collected: 1,757,658
General Buhari should get majority of votes here in jigawa, he has won the state before, President Jonathan might get the required 25% due to the sitting PDP Governor of the state, Sule Lamido.

Verdict: Muhammadu Buhari (APC)
Kaduna State: PVCs Collected: 3,174,519
Home state to Vice President Namadi Sambo, this state is very important because of its voting strength, might be a battle state but  a General Buhari Victory will foresee here despite being a PDP Controlled state, President Jonathan should get the required 25% here due to the influence of the vice president and the incumbent Governor of the State.

Verdict: Muhammadu Buhari (APC)
Kano State: PVCs Collected: 4,112,039
One of the most interesting states to watch out for, General Buhari should win comfortably here, he is being supported by the kwankwasiyya movement headed currently by the Governor of the state, Alhaji Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso, President Jonathan will hardly get the required 25% here except he gets help from now PDP member and former Governor of the state, Ibrahim Shekarau.

Verdict: Muhammadu Buhari (APC)
Katsina State: PVCs Collected: 2,620,096
The home state of General Buhari, this should be another comfortable win for him and may even frustrate the chances of President Jonathan getting the required 25% in this state, unless PDP Governor of the State, Ibrahim Shema comes to his rescue.

Verdict: Muhammadu Buhari (APC)
Kebbi State: PVCs Collected: 1,372,630
This state was won by General Buhari in the last election and will be won again by him this time though some people might consider it a battle ground because the State is ruled by the PDP government.

Verdict: Muhammadu Buhari (APC)
Kogi State: PVCs Collected: 926,013
This is another battle ground state, General Buhari lost this state in 2011, but has been boosted by decampment of many PDP members in the state and the state is being ruled by the PDP government and votes in this state can swing at any candidate.

Verdict: Too Close to call (Battle Ground)
Kwara State: PVCs Collected: 889,067
The APC is putting their trusts in the hands of Former Governor Sen. Bukola Saraki and Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed to deliver this state to General Buhari, General Buhari lost this state to PDP in 2011 but that was when Kwara was still a PDP state, things might be working now in favour of General Buhari, this should be a battle ground state.

Verdict: General Buhari (APC)
Lagos State: PVCs Collected: 3,799,274
The biggest swing state and the state with the biggest number of voters in the country, President Jonathan won the state in 2011, but with the strong support of major APC stakeholders in the state, it will be hard for President Jonathan to win in this state, it will be a major battle ground.

Verdict: Too Close to call (Battle Ground)
Nasarawa State: PVCs Colleceted: 1,048,053
Another state to be considered as a battle ground, an original PDP state until Governor Al makura of the then CPC won the state from the incumbent governor in 2011, but surprisingly General Buhari lost the state in the presidential elections to President Jonathan.

Verdict: Too close to call (Battle Ground)
Niger State: PVCs Collected: 1,682,058
Another state that should be a win for General Buhari, he has been winning the state and from the campaigns it shows the people are ready to vote him in again, President Jonathan will also get some votes from the state and will most likely get over 25% in the state due to support of the PDP state Governor, Aliyu Babangida

Verdict: Muhammadu Buhari (APC)
Ogun State: PVCs Collected: 1,125,657
This is a very troubled state which saw major decampments of stakeholders from the APC to the PDP and to form the newly SDP which is said to be romancing the PDP, with the reconciliation of the PDP members in the state, it looks like a good win for President Jonathan, but we will be reminded that it is still ruled by the APC government.

Verdict: Too close to call (Battle Ground)
Ondo State: PVCs Collected: 1,118,479
President Jonathan should win in this state, he has the support of PDP Governor, Olusegun Mimiko in the state, General Buhari may put up a fight in the state due to the wrangling in the pdp chapter of the party and decampments of members into APC.

Verdict: Goodluck Jonathan (PDP)
Osun State: PVCs Collected: 1,033,229
This will be another tough state, but if the state should go by the recent voting patterns, The ACN won this state in the 2011 Presidential election and the APC won the state for the gubernatorial election, it is noted that Governor Rauf Aregbesola is a strong Party Man, and if the state should go by the statistics then the APC should win the state

Verdict: Too Close to Call  (Battle Ground)
Oyo State:  PVCs Collected: 1,639,967
This state was won by President Jonathan in the 2011 elections, but this time there is a lot of competition in the state, this will be another major battle ground state, as the both parties appear very strong in the state.

Verdict: Too Close to Call (Battle Ground)
Plateau State:  PVCs Collected: 1,508,585
President Jonathan won this state overwhelmingly in 2011, The then CPC also secured the 25% required in the state, this state is currently ruled by the PDP but nevertheless President Jonathan should win this state again, but he won't win with the big gap which he did in 2011.

Verdict: President Jonathan
Rivers State: PVCs Collected: 2,127,837
With the recent defection of the Deputy governor of Rivers state, with major APC stakeholders in the state to the PDP, it can be said that President Jonathan will once again win this state, the APC should get the required 25% in this state with the director general of the APC Presidential campaign and Governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi under control of the party in the state.

Verdict: President Jonathan (PDP)
Sokoto State: PVCs Collected: 1,527,004
General Buhari won this state in 2011 under a PDP Governor, and now the Governor has decamped to the APC, and General Buhari should also win this state comfortably, but because of the strength of pdp in the state, President Jonathan should get the required 25% in this state.

Verdict: Muhammadu Buhari (APC)
Taraba State PVCs Collected: 1,270,889
This will be another tough state, the APC presented a female gubernatorial candidate in this state who is popular in the state, the PDP has tried to put its house in order in the state because of the happenings after Governor danbaba suntai's camp fell out with the deputy Governor, who is now acting governor of the state, General T.Y Danjuma and Atiku Abubakar will have strong influence on how the state will vote.

Verdict: Too Close to call (Battle Ground)
Yobe State: PVCs Collected: 824,401
This should be another easy win for General Buhari, the state is under the control of an APC Governor, the CPC and ANPP got a lot of votes in this state and are now under the APC, it might be hard for President Jonathan to get the required 25% in this state.

Verdict: Muhammadu Buhari (APC)
Zamfara State: Registered Voters: 1,495,717
Another big win is predicted for General Buhari in this state, he won it overwhelmingly in 2011 and will repeat the feat again, and President Jonathan should also secure 25% in this state like he did in the previous election.

Verdict: Muhammadu Buhari (APC)
Voting strength by Geo-Political Zone.
North West: 15,999,398
North Central: 8,230,685
North East: 7,922,444
South East: 6,621,541
South South: 8,418,474
South West: 9,238,713
Battle Ground States:
Adamawa State
FCT
Lagos State
Nasarawa State
Ogun State
Osun State
Oyo State
Taraba State
These states listed above are battle ground states, the presidential election will be won and lost in the following states, from deep research and calculations whoever gets majority of votes in the states above should win the presidential election.

Follow me for updates during the election and some strong analysis and watch out for my governorship predictions.

Written by Harold Oranusi.
Twitter: @HaroldOranusi
Email: [email protected]