Jonathan Leads Buhari in Presidential Poll

Source: pointblanknews.com

Washington DC March 19, 2015: With less than 2 weeks to the presidential elections in Nigeria, a Nigeria nation-wide poll conducted from March 8-16, 2015, for the Diaspora Nigeria Nationals Network (DNNet) USA, shows that in a head-to-head matchup the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leads the challenger Retired General Muhammadu Buhari, of the All Progressive Congress (APC) by 8 points. The PDP ticket of Goodluck Jonathan and Vice President Namadi Sambo gets support from 53 percent of registered voters and the APC ticket of Buhari and running mate Prof. Yemi Osinbajo gets 45 percent.  When the field of contestants is expanded to include other candidates the margin widens to 10 points, 52-42 percent in favor of the PDP ticket, indicating that in a two-way race the APC ticket picks up the anti-Jonathan support and loses them when other choices are provided.

The PDP ticket surprisingly, seems to be buoyed mostly by the perception that they are better equipped for changing the fundamentals of the Nigeria state based on the convocation of the National Conference (Confab), by President Jonathan. When asked who will be best for bringing change, the PDP ticket gets 58 percent while the APC ticket gets 37 percent. The PDP ticket is also preferred on education 57-35 percent and has an insignificant lead (within the margin of error) on who is better for the economy, with 45-42 percent. However on who does better for fighting corruption, ensuring security, the APC ticket leads by 8 (53-45) and 5 (51-46) percent respectively. When it comes to likeability, the PDP ticket also was preferred 56-35 percent. Most can relate to the life story of Jonathan and not so much with Buhari. When asked to describe both candidates with one word, for Jonathan the two top descriptions were weak and honest. For Buhari they were dictator and privileged.  On which of the candidates would you like to invite to your social event or have a drink with, the PDP ticket was preferred by 61-37 percent. 

A subgroup analysis of the survey reveals that the PDP ticket leads in the South-East zone 77-15; South-South zone 69-22; South West zone 50-41 and North Central zone 51-43. Conversely, the APC ticket strong showings were in the North-West and North-East where they lead by 61-34 and 55-44 percentage points respectively.

While the state of the Nigerian economy and the nation's direction continue to pose significant obstacles for the President Jonathan, the poll points to even steeper challenges for Buhari, including concerns about his qualifications to run for president, his health status and religious views. “The PDP appears to have done a better job defining Buhari, turning the election from a referendum to a choice,” says Doug Schulz, the pollster, who led this survey project. Also Commenting on the poll Dr. Daniel Udia, the Executive Director of the Diaspora organization that commissioned the survey said “I believe the money advantage, the incumbency factor and the postponement of the election may have helped the PDP ticket a lot more. It also didn't help the APC ticket that their candidate took time off the campaign trail, allowing the PDP to define him as old, sick and unfit to govern a complex country like Nigeria. Although this is not a done deal by any means, the unknown factors being the newly introduced permanent voter's card and who shows up and votes.”

The poll was conducted from March 8-16, 2015 among 2,100 randomly selected registered voters (including 1835 cell phone-only respondents and the rest through paper survey), and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus (+/-) 3.5 percentage points. For more details of the survey visit our website at   www.dnnet.org/

 
 
 
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