Has TAN Run out of Steam?
Jideofor Adibe
A recent discussion with a friend over the Transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria (TAN) informed my decision this week to reflect on the organisation, what its sponsors probably want and the organisation's possible trajectory.
My opinion of TAN is that it has achieved both fame and notoriety. Fame in the sense that not only was its media campaign to get President Jonathan to agree to run in the 2015 very epochal, with governors, fortune entrepreneurs and PDP's political 'timbers and calibres' (apologies to the late KO Mbadiwe) queuing up to identify with the organization but also because it came with razzmatazz, blitzkrieg and colour. Prior to the APC's national convention that threw up General Buhari as its presidential candidate, TAN simply dominated the political space, with numerous media adverts and billboards of President Jonathan in several cities across the country advertising his achievements in office and why he should be 'persuaded' to run in 2015.
Just as TAN tantalized, it also spurred mockery, giggles and accusations of charlatanism at suggestions that President Jonathan, whose body language was all clearly indicative of the fact that he would DEFINITELY contest the election, was being persuaded to run. TAN's claim that it collected millions of signatures of Nigerians 'persuading' President Jonathan to run in this year's presidential election – a novelty among political advocacy groups – however reminds one of a pamphlet published in about 1983 by the defunct Unity Party of Nigeria led by the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo and entitled 'Awo Says Yes'. The pamphlet was apparently a celebration that Awolowo, whom everyone knew was DEFINITELY going to contest the 1983 presidential election, had been 'persuaded' to accept to run in 1983. Talk about preaching to the converted!
Let me digress a bit by stating that there is nothing wrong with political advocacy groups.Advocacy groups – also variously known as pressure groups, lobby groups, campaign groups, interest groups, or special interest groups) – are in the business of trying to influence public opinion and/ or government policy. They use various methods to try to achieve their goals including lobbying, media campaigns, publicity stunts, polls, research and policy briefings.
It is not unusual for strong political advocacy groups to develop into important political institutions or social movements. Some have also been accused of manipulating the democratic system for narrow commercial gain.Others have no formal ties to the candidate they profess to support or work for. For instance the Ready for Clinton advocacy group, which was formed in April 2013 to lay the groundwork for Hilary Clinton's expected bid for the White House in 2016 says its aim is to rebuild the Clintons' (Hilary and Bill's) list of supporters (which had been dormant since 2008) for rent or sale to an eventual Hilary Clinton campaign.
It is also not abnormal for a sitting President to set up a political advocacy group. For instance Obama formed the support group, Organizing for Action (OFA), to promote his second term agenda. OFA drew howls of protest from reform groups when it was formed out of the remaining infrastructure of Obama's re-election campaign, but Obama maintained that it “will be an unparalleled force in American politics.” He also claimed that OFA “will work to turn our shared values into legislative action … and it'll empower the next generation of leaders in our movement.”
Where does TAN fit into all these? And what is really the aim of the sponsors of TAN?
For full disclosure, when Ifeanyi Uba, Chairman of Capital Oil, believed to be the brain behind TAN and its main financier ran for Governor of Anambra State, I openly endorsed him in this column on the grounds that he showed more hunger for the job than other candidates, including during the debates. However I have no association whatsoever with TAN and have never met any of the rumoured sponsors. Whatever theory I am propounding about the likely trajectory of TAN is purely conjectural:
One, I am not sure I accept the argument that the desire to have his company, Capital Oil, returned to him by AMCON, would be enough reason for him to form and sponsor TAN. While it is possible that returning his company to him could be part of the reasons, my opinion is that there must be cheaper means of achieving the same objective so we need to look outside this for the answer to what goaded him into starting and funding TAN. I also believe it may be simplistic to put it down to the desire to pursue contracts in a Jonathan presidency or to prevent the law from taking its course in his alleged involvement in kerosene subsidy scandal (he has not been charged of any offence).
My speculation is that Ifeanyi Uba may be setting up a political structure whose trajectory may go beyond the Jonathan presidency. My feeling is that Ifeanyi Uba's unsuccessful attempt at being the Governor of Anambra State may have goaded him into trying to create something that would be bigger than the Anambra State governorship post he couldn't get. It may be his own way of having a last laugh, of thumping his nose at those he believes prevented him from realizing his ambition of being the Governor of Anambra State. Just imagine these facts: TAN claims to have over 11 million members and with structures in all states and local governments in the country. If TAN's claims are true, it means it has what it takes to transform into a viable national political party – in which Uba will obviously be a key actor – if he does not want to sell the TAN structure to such a party. A parallel here will be the Ready for Hilary advocacy group which does not hide the fact that it plans to sell or rent the Clintons' list, if and when Hilary Clinton makes up its mind to run for President. If TAN's alleged 11 million members and the millions of signatures it claimed it collected urging President Jonathan to run are true, then the TAN structure is a potent weapon that could be used in various ways – in sensitising citizens and in commercial and political marketing.
Another question of interest is why TAN seems to have run out of steam since the beginning of 'Buharimania'? There are a number of speculations:
One, given the way TAN marketed itself and President Jonathan aggressively and how it completely dominated the political space before Buhari became the presidential candidate of the APC, many expected it to have come up with novel ways of slowing down what some now regard as the 'Buhari moving train'. Again while I can't claim to know what the group does behind the scenes, the feeling is that it was much easier for them to appear unassailable when there were no strong countervailing narratives in the political space. With APC's surprising success in nominating its presidential candidate and its prolonged post-convention bounce (aided by the re-invention of a previously unelectable Buhari), TAN, which presented itself as invincible, is yet to live up to expectations in the post- Buhari nomination era.
Two, it is also possible that TAN quickly became a victim of its successes. TAN was so much everywhere that it is possible that TAN fatigue has set in among many people such that whatever it is doing is now not being as much noticed by many people as before. It is also possible that some PDP party apparatchiks may have felt eclipsed, if not marginalized by TAN and therefore are not giving it the room to shine. Not long ago, TAN was declared persona non grata in Bayelsa State.
Three, TAN's octopus-like structure mirrors the gargantuan ambitions of its founder – Ifeanyi Uba, an Nnewi born business man. Ifeanyi Uba, who started as a trader quickly grew very rich in the Democratic Republic of Congo and was able to diverse into several businesses including oil and gas. This is both an asset and a liability. It is an asset in attracting respectable members of the PDP and fortune seekers into its fold but also makes it difficult for it to be a movement as it tends to be top-heavy. TAN is not likely to have that sense of shared ownership one gets in organisations that are run from contributions by members.
Four, TAN is perhaps into so many activities that it is uncertain whether it wants to be an NGO or a bureaucracy. For instance its objectives, as stated on its website include to “promote the spirit of self-reliance and entrepreneurship, empowerment, job creation and provision of industrial cities”, to “create jobs to sustain families and spread the gospel of Goodluck's transformation agenda through visible empowerment of the people”, and to“promote unity, peace and progress of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and encourage quality leadership and support good governance.” In essence, TAN's objectives seem go beyond its mission statement of promoting the Transformation Agenda of President Jonathan. This apparent lack of synergy between objectives and mission statement is one of the reasons why there remains speculation on what the sponsors of TAN really want and the possible trajectories of the organization.
Overall, while TAN has raised the level of political advocacy in the country, it remains to be seen the eventual trajectory of the organisation, including its strategies for confronting the Buhari challenge.
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