Insurgency, Insecurity And 2015 Polls

By Iyke Ozemena

When the insurgents struck at Chibok in April 2014 and about 200 girl students fell victim and remained helplessly in captivity ever since, they unwittingly brought Nigerians together in prayer, fasting, vigil and worrying about the girls' welfare irrespective of ethnic coloration, religious leanings or political affiliations. It was all condemnation by all and sundry; within and outside Nigeria. Yet the hope of bringing the girls back has dimmed terribly.

As politicians criss-cross the entire country campaigning for votes I have tried in vain to extract any confirmation from any of the political parties on whose platform the candidates campaign, that help is on the way for the girls. I am talking about serious verifiable, and reliable rescue plan. In the absence of any what we have in that stead is mere rhetoric or do we have to assume, though painfully that the Chibok girls have become 2004 Tsunami victims; or 2012 Dana Airways crash victims without rescue? But if that assumption turns out to be false and we pleasantly discover that God has kept them under his mighty shadows all these while, then the logistics for keeping the Chibok girls this long must have been very sophisticated and intractable.

The experience of Chibok girls in captivity tightly kept away from the media, satellite and intelligence community appears worse than living in Russian communist enclave before the regime of president Mikhal Gorberchev. It epitomized the insurgents' detestation of education and knowledge; yet paradoxically they benefit from modern technologies that proceeded from them. The Chibok girls and their parents seem to be punished for the pursuit of knowledge and education.

For the insurgents to have captured sophisticated military hardware from Nigerian Army at Baga must have left the unrebuttable impression that Boko Haram was superior albeit at 'Baga sector'. As if that is not scary enough the insurgents made fruitless efforts to connect with their colleagues from neighboring Cameron and Chad. Little wonder therefore that African Union did not hesitate to endorse the deployment of 7,500 troops to fight Boko Haram forces.

If it is not the best of times for Nigeria, and it is certainly not the best of times for the National Security Adviser (NSA) to the president, Col.Sambo Dasuki (rtd) who has been linked with the $9.5 failed arms deal meant to boost the combat fitness of Nigerian Army. This inadequacy of appropriate military hardware has been alleged to be behind the reason for the mutineers' exhibition of cowardice before the insurgents in the North-East of Nigeria. The vicious cycle of this poor state of the military in flushing out the insurgents has created he aura of insecurity in the polity that on advice of the security boss INEC under s.26 of Electoral Act 2010 as amended, cancelled the proposed February election, now shifted to 28th March and 11th April 2015.

Sometimes when nations come to a cross-road such as Nigeria experiences now you expect patriotic reactions that indicate that nationhood precedes citizenship. David Blunket, British, Labor minister symbolized this when he resigned after a scandal that should have been taken for granted not relating to national security. Julia Pierson did same in USA over security breach at the White House. Apart from this postponement of February election how many politicians or public servants have claimed responsibility for poor security and resigned?

Just the preceding week the Joint Health Sector Union (JOHESU) called off their two months old strike, commenced last November. Of course their counterpart in action, Judicial Staff Union of Nigerian (JUSUN) called of theirs a couple of days earlier. But their states version are still hanging on. No settlement yet. And one wonders why the Federal judiciary's acceptance of direct funding judgment does not seem to bind the states?

There is no doubt that Rivers state has remained controversial since the Supreme Court 'installed' their governor in 2007. Since then there has not been dull moments there: from sacking of local government councilors and bosses to fracas at the state assembly; from governor's fallout with the president to Amechi's removal as chairman of Governors' Forum; from purported impeachment of their speaker by five legislators to passing of budget outside the state assembly; from commissioner of police Joseph Mbu to defection of Governor Amechi to APC; from Wike's bid to succeed Amechi to the state judiciary left in limbo and disarray, not sure who becomes state CJ and swear in the next governor (if any).

The greatest threat to national security which led to the cancellation of the February election is no doubt the three North Eastern states now the operating zones of the insurgency. How can elections be conducted in those areas? You need the entire security organizations in Nigeria to stand by as the elections are being conducted. Even at that no one has guarantee of any sort for those personnel that would be in the field.

Tackling these myriads of threats to national security depletes the budget. And considering the fact that the price of oil which constitutes over 70% of Nigeria's GDP has crashed , you can feel the tension palpably mounting in an election year. In these circumstances Nigeria faces the real possibility of spending huge percentage of her foreign reserves, in quest of sophisticated arms, security and intelligence apparatus if the legislators approves about $1 billion which the presidency needs to crush the insurgency. Already the election materials for the general election has gulped billions and yet not done.

The legitimacy of elections derive from compliance with the relevant laws: 1999 Constitution (as amended), Electoral Act 2010 (as amended) etc. And no doubt that INEC acted within the provisions of the laws as well as on expert advice. All these were done in the most transparent manner, supported by the fact that over 30% of eligible voters, estimated at 27 millions were yet to collect their PVCs. But my major concern is that INEC cannot claim substantial credibility in the conduct of 2015 election for failing to deliver the PVCs as it is statutorily bound to do . And that is my submission for those who have found their names in their digital register after June 2014 voters register review and registration.

Besides it amounts to induced disenfranchisement in the case of those who possess temporary voters card disallowed to vote because the electoral law has specified the mode of voting via PVCs. However, for those who misplaced theirs and make efforts to replace them may run into induced criminality as the computer register would record you as registering more than once. And there is no guarantee that your bio-data can be found in the digital register since the computer can delete data in error.

I am not suggesting in any way that INEC's task of conducting free, fair and credible 2015 election is a child's play. The points I have raised include the fact that they are backed by the law and resources. Logistics is vital to predict, estimate and prune down big pictures of job schedules such that it would have been obvious that for instance over 700,000 adhoc staff are required to carry out the tasks and the number of Card Reading Machines required, and the number of polling booths that would be functional for the purposes of the election which they have four years to plan and implement.

Just to corroborate the point I made earlier on INEC engages ad hoc staff whenever they have major election to conduct, so over the years they can boast of more than a million people who have been trained and participated in elections as ad hoc staff. One of the common denominators of this class of people is the training and drills in electioneering. With foresight and prudence a register of such caliber of people should be kept for INEC to 'recall' those available since they have been trained already. Then the discrepancy from the total staff required would now be recruited and trained. That would reduce total cost of training to the barest minimum.

It is rather annoying to note that about 4% of registered voters not having PVCs and about 1.5% of PVCs are already stolen. Complaints of this sort are now common place. Not to talk about those eligible Nigerians who missed to get into the register in June 2014; and those who turned 18 on daily basis thereafter till date who are supposed to be registered if INEC had maintained continuity of registration as stipulated by the law. ASHBY V. WHITE (1703)2 Ld Raym. 938 is an old English case that established that the right to vote was in the nature of a proprietary right, consequently denial of right to vote could lead to liability in damages when proved against the electoral authorities who failed in their statutory duties.

Finally, some display of shrewdness and administrative acumen by INEC would not only enhance public confidence on its competence and reliability, it would also encourage those institutions and nations, especially outside Nigeria who fund these elections to continue to render this public spirited service without despondency.

Iyke Ozemena
IKECHUKWU O. ODOEMELAM & CO
Corporate Attorneys/Consultants

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