TINUBU AND THE APC SHOULD NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE VOTES OF SOUTH-SOUTH / SOUTH-EAST PEOPLE

The race for a running mate to General Muhammadu Buhari, the Presidential candidate of the All Progressive Congress, APC, is the issue on the front burner aside the recent acquisition of seven war spacecraft by Tompolo, ex-militant leader.

Some have argued that the South West has to produce the candidate for the position because of the bloc votes from the zone. Others say Bola Tinubu should be left to nominate the person to fill the position. There is nothing wrong with that if it is sure to ensure a victory for the APC over and against the ruling party,PDP.

The idea is that since President Jonathan is from the South-South zone, it is expected that he will have bloc votes from the zone as well as the nearby South East zone, as such, the proponents of a North / West ticket for the APC do not think that the South South should be in consideration.

While it is an incontrovertible fact that President Jonathan is expected to dominate the votes from his people as was the case in the 2011 elections, but that was with the bulk 2 million votes of Rivers people under Gov. Rotimi Amaechi as the then leader of the PDP and the Jonathan Campaign Organisation. To rightly put it, things have changed four years after. Jonathan's PDP in Rivers state is now in opposition, struggling to secure at least 30 per cent of the votes. Amaechi is still the governor who made a major move last year to dump the PDP after being hounded, harassed and suspended by the agents of the President.

To dismiss the radical and courageous governor is like under-rating the effect of heat on water at 100 degrees centigrade.

The people of the State, both APC and PDP alike, are in league with their governor who has severally and consistently maintained that despite the total support for Jonathan in 2011, they have nothing to show for it. Many say the governor has been vindicated particularly after the failed bid by the Ijaws, the President's kins men and their Ogoni brothers to compel him to stop the alleged unjust imposition of Nyeso Wike as the governorship candidate of the PDP.

The aggrieved and bruised people of the state can only pray to have a leader from the zone in Aso Rock who will treat all ethnic groups equally.

They are prepared to either lend their support to Amaechi if he is a running mate to General Buhari or cast dry votes against Jonathan. Some within the PDP say they will remain in the party but will not support the President's re-election.

The same goes for the other PDP-controlled states in the South-South where two out of the three governors have been having a running battle with the leadership of the party. Gov. Uduaghan of Delta State and Godswill Akpabio of Akwa Ibom state are not having the best of times with the President's men, in choosing their successors and pursuing their Senatorial bids. In the two states, majority of the PDP stalwarts have either decamped to the APC or are busy licking their wounds. In Cross River, the Senate majority leader, Ndoma Egba lost out to Gov. Liyel Imoke and that has left Egba wondering if he should not have joined the Speaker of the House of Representatives to defect to the APC.

The South-East states controlled by the PDP have also been rattled by the party's plot to stop the out-going governors from choosing their successors. Gov. Chime of Enugu State and Gov. Elechi of Ebonyi state are not left out in the injury meted on them by the party they had so protected.

Apart from a handful of those who are beneficiaries of the PDP Federal Government, others are waiting for the 2015 elections to deal a heavy blow on the party especially during the Presidential election.

The case of Abia State seems to be the worst as there is a mass drift from the PDP due to the alleged high handedness of Gov. T.A. Orji. The residents of Aba, the commercial city as well as the traders there are not prepared to cast their votes for the PDP. In a free and fair election, without the intimidation of the security agencies; there is no way the PDP can campaign or even win a vote from the largely populated city which has become a nightmare for residents, visitors and commuters.

The APC can only become a beneficiary of these fallouts if the people of the region see one of theirs on the ballot paper. Just 30-40 per cent of the votes in each of these zones will give the party a comfortable win against the PDP.

Where the APC fails in this consideration, then there will be no deal between the party and the people of this region. This will thus leave the APC struggling to secure 90 per cent of the total votes from the North and the West, and that is not likely, given that elections may not hold in the North East which is the strongest hold of the party.

In Amaechi, the people of the South-South and their South East brothers will be assuaged. It is not just because he represents the people in culture and religion, but he is sure to replicate his achievements in Rivers state as governor for his people.

The two zones are in dire need of a leader who has the respect of other tribes and not a mere figure head.

Leaving Amaechi out of the ticket will ultimately make it difficult for the APC to campaign for votes in the region.

I recall that a similar fate befell Late Chief M.K.O. Abiola when he refused to indulge the South East leaders on their demands for key positions. Chief Abiola was quoted as telling the leaders that he did not need the South East votes to win his election. Yes, he won in an inconclusive election which was scuttled by the former Head of State, Ibrahim Babangida through a petition written by the infamous Association of Better Nigeria, ABN, led by a South East leader, Chief Arthur Nzeribe.

Having fought so hard against the injustice meted against his people of Rivers State as well as the entire zone by the Jonathan-led PDP Government, Gov. Rotimi Amaechi sure deserves the ticket. He is popular amongst the governors irrespective of party affiliation, as the authentic Chairman of Nigerian Governors Forum, NGF, for two consecutive terms as well as the former Chairman of Conference of Speakers and Lawmakers for two straight tenures. Amaechi's popularity cuts across ethnicity and religiosity.

If Tinubu and the leadership of the APC fail to endorse him as the running mate to Buhari, a ticket which is already causing uneasy calm in the Presidency, then they would have lost the best opportunity to beat Jonathan in 2015, while they would also succeed in making Amaechi an enemy of his people if he continues to campaign against Jonathan.

Written by Oby Ndukwe, from Abuja.