Brick House 2015: The Options Left For The Kalabaris

With current happenings in the political firmament of Rivers State, the Kalabaris and most Rivers Ijaws are now left with only three options which they must as a matter of urgency apply or forget about the Brick House for the next Four or possibly Eight years to come.

Just last week, we were inundated by reports that 16 Gubernatorial Candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state, majority of whom are Kalabaris protested against the Party Leadership's handling of the Party's ward Congresses in the state. The reason for the protest was not unconnected with the believe(or should we say knowledge) that the Congresses were skewed to favour the immediate past Minister of State for Education, Chief Barrister Nyensom E. Wike, whom the First Lady, an Ijaw woman, appears to be backing.

In a related but somewhat unconnected development, the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the State has zoned its Gubernatorial Ticket to Rivers South-East Senatorial District which is made up of four Ogoni local government areas: Khana, Gokana, Eleme and Tai, as well as Oyigbo, Andoni and Opobo/Nkoro.

The party based its decision on what it described as agitation of the people of the District to produce Governor RotimiAmaechi's successor, to end what they called an injustice, lack of equity and fairness to the area. In truth, that area has not produced a Governor since the State was created in 1967.

This decision now narrows the APC ticket battle to two of Amaechi allies, namely the incumbent Senator representing the District, Magnus Ingei Abe who is from Bera-Ogoni, in Gokana Local Government Area (upland) and House of Representatives Member, Hon. DakukuPetersidewho is a native ofOpobo Town, the headquarters of Opobo/Nkoro LGA (riverine).

It is instructive to note that despite what some will tell you today, Rivers State politics has always revolve around an Upland-Riverine Dichotomy. Thus, If Sen. Abe clinches the ticket and eventually wins the general election, then it means a continuation of Upland rule for at least another four years in the state. However, if Hon. Petersides wins, it means a shift of the balance of power to the Riverine areas of the state for the first time since 1999.

With this scenario in play, it is clear that the Kalabaris cannot afford to move to the APC as there is nothing for them there too. So this now leaves us with the N2.8Billion question, viz: what are the options available for the Kalabaris? Let's go into that.

As I said in my opening sentence, the Kalabaris are left with 3 Options. These are: 1. Unite; 2. Fight to Win the PDP Ticket and Structures; and 3. Move en mass to a Third Political Party. Now, let me break this three points (options) down.

1. UNITY OF PURPOSE: The Kalabari Aspirants must come together to form a common front. A situation where many Kalabari sons are running for the same position at the same time will not do their corporate interest any good. This is not the time for ego trips and to compete on whose 'Etibo' or Hat is finer, or who has more pedigree and other trivialities.

The Candidates of Kalabari origin that have expressed interest to run for the Brick House may all be fine and accomplished gentlemen in their individual right, however, going individually against Chief Barrister NyensomWike is not a smart move. This is because the large number of Kalabaris already in the race will divide the loyalties and votes of the Delegates, while Wike who stands alone will patiently wait like a Vulture to reap from that confusion.

Wike might not look or talk like your ideal 21st century Guber candidate. He may look and talk more like a refined and well packaged Chairman of the Rivers State chapter of the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW). Yet don't underestimate his mastery of Rivers Politics. Why should you even underrate the Rivers.NURTW Chairman? One of Wike's guys in PHALGA, Chief HonourableAzubuikeEmeregini rose from his post as NURTW to become the Mayor of Port Harcourt. You underrate Wike at your own peril. Ask GovAmaechi.

While GovAmaechi was busy 'breaking Egusi' in Government, Wike, who's based in Abuja, was able to build his Grassroot development Initiative (GDI) structure in Rivers State under the former's nose. So you see, contrary to what Governor Amaechi will have you believe, Wike is not a "small boy".

Those with keen eye to observe and discern the happenings in the state especially the rise of Wike from a Local Government Chairman to a de facto Minister of Education and the new Bulldozer of Rivers State Politics that even the old Bulldozer now follows will know that he is not a push over. In fact, he has become to man to beat in this race.

So the Kalabaris best bet at victory is to concentrate their forces and pull their resources together to form a common front. In more succinct language, they have to settle for a sole Candidate that will be backed by all others to go into the campaign. Failure to do so will be perilous and costly. After this task is accomplished, then we can turn to our second option.

2. REMAIN IN THE PEOPLE DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO FIGHT FOR THE FLAG

Having succeeded in forming a Kalabari Common Front, the next option is to pull all resources together to clinch the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ticket.

Historically, since 1999, the winner of the PDP Gubernatorial Primaries eventually becomes the Governor of Rivers State. The reason for this should not be farfetched. The PDP has a strong war chest, a battle tested election winning strong political structure in the state that has continued to mill out Governors in the state since the return to Civil Rule. Losing the PDP would prove a most costly loss at this stage of the electioneering campaign considering how many more months are left before the Election Day.

Nevertheless, if all efforts at winning the PDP ticket fail because Chief Wike is able to commandeer the party structures, then this will leave them with our option number 3.

3. MASS EXODUS TO A THIRD POLITICAL PARTY: Nobody's umbilical cord was buried in the Aba Road offices or the Wadata House, Abuja National Head Office of the PDP. Thus, if it becomes clear that the Consensus Kalabari Candidate would lose out in the struggle for the PDP Flag in the forthcoming PDP Primary election, then, the inevitable thing for them to do is to move en mass to a third political Party.

The choice of a third political party will be necessitated by the fact that both the APC and the PDP must have been foreclosed to their candidate by such a time. Already the zoning of the APC ticket to Rivers South-East Senatorial District has driven the final nail to the casket of any hopes of a Kalabari flag bearer in that party.

As the clock ticks, each passing second takes us closing to the 2015 Gubernatorial election in the State. So, time is of the essence today.

Whether Rivers State will be government by a Kalabari man from 2015 will be determined by which of these try options they properly apply. However, the foregoing should not be interpreted as an Iron Law that cannot be altered.

In the final analysis, the political dexterity of the actors and the will of the electorate will be the final arbiter of who gets what when and how in Rivers State come next year.

All, FGA could do now is wish all parties Goodluck and hope that they have the patience needed to win.

Fortune God'sSon Alfred is a Public Policy Analyst cum Political/Media Strategist who tweets via @Elmagnificento1