JONATHAN’S CAT’S PAWS

'Let only the good come from you and the evil from others.' - Baltasar Gracian (1601-1658)

Do you know that the rising crescendo of ethnic tensions and the employment of religious justification for Boko Haram's acts of terror, which has for some time now bogged down Africa's most populous nation, Nigeria, culminating in political insecurity of lives and property in the country, escalated in the last one year just as political parties jostle and battle for control of the country in their earnest positioning and cold-blooded calculations for the 2015 presidential election? Renowned Kaduna-based Islamic scholar, Sheik Ahmed Gumi, may have confirmed this when he received the leader of Sam4Nigeria, Mr. Sam Nda-Isaiah, and his team at his residence on Thursday, 20th February, 2014, insisting that 'President Jonathan's exit will end Boko Haram insurgency'. He must be privy to something the rest of us don't know pertaining the unfolding political dualism of good and evil struggling for supremacy in the country.

From their standpoint of a historical 'born-to-rule' determinism, a few angry politicians from the northern parts of the country, who felt short changed by the death of President Umaru Yar'Adua (a northerner) on Wednesday, 5th May, 2010 after a protracted illness exactly 24 days to his third anniversary in office, which cut short the region's mandatory two-term presidency, by one token and by another, catapulted the incumbent President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ), a southerner to power, had as a result vowed to make the country 'ungovernable' for him or any southerner who the 2011 presidential elections may produce. The northerners had become hooked on power and could not imagine themselves without it for too long, thereby becoming angry, vengeful dupes in a political insurgency.

As far back as Thursday, 29th March, 2012, Nigerian newspapers had published an interview 'A Northerner Must Emerge In 2015 or Nigeria Will Decide' wherein Lawal Kaita, a former governor old Kaduna State, had declared arrogantly: 'We hear rumors all over that Jonathan is planning to contest in 2015. Well, the north is going to be prepared if the country remains one. That is if the country remains one, we are going to fight for it, if not, everybody can go his wayThe North is determined, if that happens, to make the country ungovernable for President Jonathan or any other Southerner who finds his way to the seat of power on the platform of the PDP against the principle of the party's zoning policy.'

A founding member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and former vice president Atiku Abubakar's buddy and political buccaneer, Kaita had sought complete exoneration for his fellow northerners even before their dastardly plan to wreak havoc on the country could come to fruition. The following month, Atiku, himself, at a national stakeholders conference organized by the northern political leaders' forum, in Abuja on Thursday, 16th December, 2010, quoted Martinique-born Afro-French psychiatrist, writer, philosopher, and revolutionary, Frantz Omar Fanon (1925-1961), a war strategist and member of the Algerian National Liberation Front (ANLF), who supported the Algerian War of Independence (1954-1962) and, defended 'the right for a colonized people to use violence to struggle for independence'. The former vice president had hollered on the occasion: 'Let me again send another message to the leadership of this nation, particularly the political leadership that those who make peaceful changes impossible make violent changes inevitable.'

In an apparent response to Atiku's inflammatory statement during the decoration of newly promoted officers of the Nigerian Air force and Nigerian Navy in Abuja, President Jonathan warned that his administration will not tolerate any threats by politicians against Nigeria's sovereignty: 'I frown at people, especially politicians, who make statements challenging the sovereignty of this nation. Government will not take it lightlyI must say here that we will no longer allow that kind of culture, we will not allow anybody to take this country for a ride.' This prompted the State Security Services (SSS) to launch a surreptitious investigation into Atiku's activities and those of his allies in the wake of his remarks. Politicians, whose 'unguarded utterances' could undermine the stability of the country, the SSS warned, would be sanctioned. Even General Muhammadu Buhari's prediction of a bloody revolution and his penchant to spill the blood of innocent Nigerians, what the ruling party has described as his 'relish of funeral train', did not help matters.

So, following his victory at the April 2011 polls, the Jonathan administration walked straight into an ambush, the one Kaita, Atiku, Buhari and co. had served it notice to expect. The attacks, though anticipated, came with shocking intensity, and they have intensified ever since, casting a mood of gloom and desolation on the entire northern region, which had proven its ruthlessness on many occasions in the past. By again taking their politics to the extreme, some of these northern politicians have typically become ardent admirers of third century Indian philosopher, Kautilya, who codified their feeling thus: 'Those who seek to achieve things should show no mercy.'

And they are 'succeeding', the terror of Jama'at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-da'wal-Jihad ('The Congregation of the People of Tradition for Proselytism and Jihad') a.k.a Boko Haram, Nigeria's biggest bugbear, has left the North-East Zone completely ravaged, and would yet not give it any respite. Most police stations, schools and villages in Bornu, Adamawa, Yobe States and their bucolic surroundings, have been repeatedly bombarded by the insurgents, who kidnap, loot, kill, maim and bomb both military and civilian targets, and forcing even the President to meanwhile cancel his campaign tours and itineraries, in order to avoid more public criticisms of his perceived 'insensitivity' to the plight of the terror victims. The same reason may have accounted for the continuous shifting of his declaration to seek reelection in next year's election.

But then since nature regularly seeks a balance, it was to be expected that something would give. In a reaction to Kaita's unfortunate outburst, Jonathan's kinsman and leader of the Niger Delta Peoples Volunteer Force (NDPVF ), Mujahedeen Dokubo-Asari, formerly Melford Dokubo Goodhead, Jr., whom a former minister of the federal capital territory, Nasir el Rufai, tagged a 'presidency thug', countered Kaita and Atiku, as he threatened Nigeria's peace in the event that President Jonathan fails to get reelected, vowing that GEJ's defeat in the 2015 presidential polls, even if adjudged free and fair, would trigger crisis in the country. Firing his own salvo at a press conference in Abuja, the father of twenty, further insisted that, by right, Jonathan is entitled to 'the full benefit of the office': 'I want to go on to say that there will be no peace, not only in the Niger Delta, but everywhere if Goodluck Jonathan is not President by 2015, except God takes his life, which we don't pray for.'

Dokubo-Asari was not done. Almost a year later, in an interview with National Mirror titled 'Expect War If Jonathan doesn't Win 2015 Elections' and published on Wednesday, 5th February, 2014, the former militant's threats became more intense, agitated and frequent: 'If it is war the North wants, we are ready for them because Jonathan must complete the mandatory constitutionally allowable two terms of eight years. At home, we have regrouped and we have put our people at alertIn less than one hour, the way we would strike, the world will be shocked. If anybody does anything against Jonathan, we will retaliate. What we will do will shock the whole world. We will cripple the economy of the country not only in the creeks, but also on the nation's territorial waters, no vessel will be allowed to enter Nigeria's territorial waters.'

Asari, who was roundly tongue-lashed as a result, seems to be in good company. In a press statement they issued on Monday, 11th November, 2013 in Calabar and signed by Paul Adah, the group's DG , the Cross River Consensus (CRC), a motley group of politicians who couldn't bear to see the South-South chased out of power prematurely and are desperate for their man to declare his intention to seek reelection, threatened litigation if the President, who unveiled his plan to contest in the February, 2011 presidential election as late as seven months to the polls (September, 2010), delayed to declare beyond mid-August of 2014. (Daily Independent newspaper - online of Tuesday, 12th November, 2013 - 2015: Declare now, or we'll go to court, CRC tells Jonathan). CRC had pleaded: 'Considering the positive steps taken so far to turn around our economy through the on-going transformation programme, we urge him to quickly declare for his legitimate second term in office, or we shall compel him through a legal instrument of mandamus.'

On his way up the ladder, the more Jonathan, a born teacher with a flair for politics, allowed people to believe that they were smarter, more sophisticated and more powerful than he actually was, the more they wanted him around them, and the more time he had to deceive and disillusion them. By playing the fool as a young politician, 'found likeable and subservient', Jonathan's 'promotion' became rapid. His meteoric rise interconnects with that of Claudius (10 BC-54 AD) before he became the 4th emperor of Rome (41-54), and likewise that of the prince of France, later known as Louis XIII' (1601-1643); Jonathan came to prominence when he became deputy governor and then governor of oil-rich Bayelsa State, and later moved swiftly from vice president to acting president and finally president of Nigeria. The tactic he adopted, as did Claudius, worked wonders, and he was largely tolerated and left undisturbed. None, not even Obasanjo, who usually looked far ahead to plot his moves, suspected Jonathan might become his own man once in office.

So, after enjoying a honeymoon period with both press and public, it was time to let everyone know who was in charge. The meek, mild-mannered and once shoeless boy from the creeks of the Niger Delta now 'acted with vigour and decisiveness', for in executive presidentialism, the only question that is about settled is that of who is in charge. Without blinking, he repeatedly slammed a state of emergency on some States in the North-East, purporting to address the security question there. 'As plots and conspiracies spring up like mushrooms after rain', the ice-cool but cunning GEJ would look the other way when the prating fool, Muritala Nyako, finally came tumbling down recently via his impeachment from office. Obviously, the retired Admiral's reckless and hostile side-swipes at the President could no longer secure him at his guber post. 'If evil be spoken of you and it be true, correct yourself, if it be a lie, laugh at it.' - Epictetus (c.55 AD-AD 135). The tone of that Nyako's letter to his fellow northern governors is intemperate and treasonable; his main argument dubious and laughable. He defiantly crossed the line and justifiably kissed the canvas, what with his pathetic display of cowardice and mendacity: as he fell 'yakata', very few seemed in a hurry to help him up - and the man fled. 'Guilt has very quick ears to an accusation.' (Henry Fielding, 1707-1754). Hard as the retired Admiral and co may have tried to outsource the terrorism blame which rightly belongs in their own backyard of the North-East zone, they must finally accept that their plan simply boomeranged against them. They can 'never repeat, lie, or shade the truth' of the matter anymore than they have already done.

'When one person makes an accusation, check it to be sure he himself is not the guilty one. Sometimes it is those whose case is weak who makes the most clamour' (Pier Anthony, 80). Earlier, GEJ also bucked the system in a presidential drubbing on Thursday, 20th February, 2014, and ordered the political whistleblower, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, to bugger off from his governorship of the country's Apex Bank for alleged misconduct and recklessness 'without recourse to the rule of law', and replaced him with the a-political, soft-spoken and cheerful Godwin Emefiele from the Zenith Bank. Kẹ́kẹ́ pa mọ́ àtíòro lẹ́nú (the àtíòro bird was finally silenced, or so thought his antagonists). Setting the parameters thus doubtless sent shivers down the line and its effect proved really resounding: fall in or fall out. Critics of the former CBN governor, who had long smelt the ripeness of his 'downfall', couldn't help thinking President Jonathan acted rather late on cue. A galled Ado Bayero (1930-2014), who along with two of his sons survived Boko Haram's assassin's bullets, the following day (Wednesday, 21st February) described Sanusi's suspension as 'illegal and a witch-hunt', would later deliver a strong rebuke to his recalcitrant and flippant Dan Majen Kano, to 'shut up and stop embarrassing the Emirate' and at the late emir's behest, the Dan Massanin Kano, Alhaji Yusuf Maitama Sule, led the Emirate's delegation to Abuja to beg the President, as well as disassociate it from Sanusi's 'actions and utterances' since his ordeal.

The Kano prince had become drop-dead adept at inciting disaffection against Jonathan and his government, and mounting a rearguard action to keep his job, scuttle the President's rumored second-term ambition, and so enter the good books of opposition governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwankwaso, who would come under intense political pressure to forget his disagreement in the past with Sanusi and reward him with the Kano Emirship, his long-sought-after ambition as a prince. Kano residents still remember how in 2002, during his first term as their governor, the same Kwankwaso threatened to withdraw his government's patronage of the United Bank for Africa (UBA), where Sanusi (never one to be mealy-mouthed with the country's leaders) then worked, if he was not dismissed by the Bank, for criticizing his government publicly and repeatedly. Kwankwaso acquiesced and deliberately overlooked the fact that Sanusi has already been fingered on corruption charges by the Federal Government following his 'suspension' as CBN governor, even if politically motivated, and could be jailed if tried and convicted. If that happens, unless placated pronto, Jonathan might plot to have the placeman, Emir Mohammed Sanusi II, deposed, as a pretext to purify the Kano traditional stool, which iconic status Kwankwaso and his 'kingmakers' (those meddlesome party leaders) may have helped to lower (Baálé ilé kú, wọ́n lọ mólókùnrùn joyè). His recent visit to GEJ at the villa in company with the Sultan of Sokoto notwithstanding; after all former senate president Chuba Okadigbo and ex-PDP chairman Audu Ogbe separately ate pounded yam with former President Olusegun Obasanjo at the same Aso Rock villa and yet lost their respective positions after.

Having dealt successfully with, and controlled his initial trepidation cum timidity, for which he was constantly held up to ridicule, the Otuoke-born Jonathan, sensing that the Boko Haram insurgency could be used as his cat's paw, has cleverly, slowly, and carefully tolerated it, treated it (by his own admission) with 'kid-gloves' till it became the clear and present danger- the Frankenstein's monster, that has now overwhelmed its creators and left its sponsors confounded and perplexed. 'Clueless, or deadly calculated? ' (Peregrino Brimah; TNV of 06/06/14). Everyone had thought: 'An enemy that is so desirous of peace will agree to any terms' (Greene; FLOP), but when the President offered amnesty to the faceless terror sect as propitiation to its powerful sponsors, or rather 'out of mercy or hope of reconciliation', he only made them more determined, more embittered, and more stubbornly convinced to rebel on. By so doing, Jonathan only strengthened their fear and hatred of him and must have harbored tricks like this one intended to save energy, effort, and cast him and his government in the role of the victims, while baiting his opponents into doing the job of destroying themselves for him and seeking to utilize it to his own political advantage.

Baiting other people into doing your bidding involves 'the ability to think far ahead' and in the process 'disguising your goal' and it usually takes more than a clueless leader to be capable of such a strategy. 'When your rivals cannot be sure what you are after, they will react in ways that often work against them.' (Greene, ibid). Aware that he has the northerners in a political cul-de-sac, Jonathan is willing to let them hang themselves, using their orchestrated charge of 'incompetence' and 'cluelessness' against him, to encourage them become the facilitators of their own destruction. Just in like manner that the late Prime Minister of Nigeria, Alhaji Tafawa Balewa (1912-1966), had become voyeuristic, clandestinely working and expecting the Yoruba of the defunct Western Region to out-kill themselves during the 'Operation Wetie' clashes of the First Republic (1960-1966). 'The truly powerful keep their hands clean. Only good things surround them' (Greene; ibid).

Appearing less intelligent than he is, Ijawman Jonathan, as found in the Chinese phrase, is masquerading as a swine to kill the tiger-North, that has grown overly arrogant, impatient and overbearing in its dealings with the rest of the country. The quicker these few increasingly uncomfortable northern politicians and elites think they can destabilize and supplant his government with the long drawn-out insurgency, the much quickly the President, always as cool as a cucumber, has been able to beat them at their own game and turned the table against them. No amount of name calling will budge him, yet he continues to look steadily on the coveted prize - the Nigerian presidency- for a second term, which is only a matter of months. 'Trouble sleep yanga go wake am' (Fela Anikulapo-Kuti; 1938-1996). A slow, placid but cunning leader, who was catalyzed and propelled by the impatience, arrogance and ruthlessness of a few northern politicians and elites, President Jonathan is sitting pretty in the catbird seat; by far desensitized to the boos and catcalls from his detractors. Ala 'those who are with you are more than those who are against you' - so his TVC claims.

As things stand today, all the notable opposition leaders from the north are perceived either as protectors or sponsors of terrorists., and not a few accusing fingers point at some of them for their alleged despicably catalytic roles in how the north, a traumatized region slowly sinking into a catatonic trance, has been buffeted by political insurgency and upheavals. Any wonder why this bunch of megalomaniac desperados are now trying to outdo one another with their lighthearted, tongue-in-cheek condemnations of the self-inflicted dreaded monster- Boko Haram insurgency. Even their young and able-bodied men moving in droves across the country are now being picked up by the relevant authorities as suspected terrorists. It must be clear to all and sundry by now that at the time these few northern politicians boasted and promised to make the country ungovernable for the President or any southerner who may emerge, they probably saw only the chance of glory, and not the dangers that loomed in the distance, and are now crying wolf after the chicken has finally come home to roost, as they watch in horror how their beloved region is irretrievably sliding into anarchy, and into the abyss. Too late, they cried for mercy, but their pleas were met all around the country with nothing but anger, abuse, derision and laughter.

Sabotaged and infiltrated, and some say 'underfunded and under supported', the Nigerian military, which is used to fighting conventional wars may, on the surface, appear to be finding it difficult to subdue the Boko Haram insurgents given the rebels' hit-and-run tactics. But things may not be that clear-cut yet. It would appear that once it became clear that he had goofed by his hasty exoneration of MEND before investigation into the bomb blast of Friday, 1st October, 2010, as well as his admission of Boko Haram's infiltration of his administration, up to his threat of unveiling the terror sponsors and getting them apprehended, there may have been some design by Jonathan to use the insurgency and its sponsors as his cat's paws. 'All men make mistakes, but the wise conceal the blunders they have made' (Gracian). So, he began to fiddle with the convenient and willing terror sect, Boko Haram, and rightly positioned as the victims, both his government and self; the poor leader undermined by a few inordinately ambitious politicians and elites from the north and in the process, reaped domestic and international sympathy and support by the bucketful. Granting the resources at their disposal, most leaders would have hastily beaten the Boko Haram insurgency into submission and would have missed out on the opportunity which President Jonathan has graciously seized to gain an advantage for himself. Suddenly, Boko Haram is everybody's bugbear and the President's alleged 'incompetence' and 'cluelessness' belong in the past. Head or tail, GEJ wins, and the opposition loses; their self-professed moral high ground paling into insignificance when juxtaposed with the damage already done to their reputation.

Cat's pawing or Scapegoating, involves those with different political beliefs and motives or people differing in behavior from the majority, and which abounds in cultures the world over, is nothing new; even before 'The Monkey and the Cat' fable of Jean de la Fontaine (1621-1695), perhaps France's most famous fabulist and certainly ''one of the most widely read French poets of the 17th century.' The strong statement of intent here being to cover one's own ass, and allow others take the blame - the fall guys: 'they did it, not me.' Carl Gustav Jung (1875-1961), a Swiss psychiatrist and psychotherapist, who founded analytical psychology, submitted that: 'there must be some people who behave in the wrong way; they act as scapegoats and objects of interest for the normal ones.' They are the recommended cat's paws any day, to be used and gotten rid of the moment their cat's paw role expires.

From France's Cardinal de Richelieu (1585-1642), who survived 'Day of the Dupes', a November 1630 plot to oust him from power, an event which luckily marked his complete restoration to royal favor, but blamed on Marillac's innocent army marshal brother; to America's Franklin D. Roosevelt (1882-1945), who used his uncomplaining secretary and political advisor, Louis Howe (1871-1936) as a cat's paw to cover his mistakes and dirty dealings, to China's Mao Tse-tung (1893-1976), who also offered his personal secretary and senior member of the Chinese Communist Party, Chen Boda (1904-1989), as a cat's paw when his Cultural Revolution (1966-1976) failed miserably, modern leaders have always hastened to offer up cat's paws and scapegoats rather than accept responsibility for their blunders in order to avoid political disasters. Jonathan, through luck and his own connivances, is no exception for posing to have been overwhelmed by the insecurity problem and blaming it on his political tormentors from the north. Without soliciting for it, he found himself willing cat's paws in a few disgruntled and impatiently ambitious northern politicians and elite, who in turn enlisted a powerful, bloodthirsty, arrogant, merciless and overly ruthless Boko Haram; a so-called Islamist sect with voracious appetite for blood.

From all points of view, the self-contrived insurgency by these politicians has been a catastrophe for the north and its people who are now prostrate with grief. Now, its three Zones could only expect the worst. By the time the 2015 presidential elections would have been won and lost, the Boko Haram insurgency and its sponsors would have conveniently served as GEJ's cat's paws, depleting the rank of the northern opposition without their realizing it and enabling and fast tracking the President's ultimate triumph. Perhaps the most abused and derided Nigerian President ever, Jonathan may have understood that for as long as he remains in office, these few northern politicians cannot be won over and as such they will remain enemies with no possibility of peace between them; and so, long before they got the chance to bear their venomous fangs, he already plotted to use them as his cat's paws. The 'shoeless' and 'clueless' strategist, a paradigm of the waiting game, continues to subdue his anger, unable to resist the temptation to kill two birds with one stone. That is, looking to harm northern influence; humble and despoil the once invincible and almighty region and, at the same time, hoping to coast home to yet another victory at next year's polls. If that happens, the northerners will once more face the prospect of being content with the Number Two slot, and they hate playing second fiddle to southerners.

Indeed, the North had proven its ruthlessness for power on many occasions in the past. Some of their politicians also have the dubious honor of being blamed, in some quarters, as responsible for the plane crashes the country witnessed at the height of the Obasanjo/Atiku face-off in 2005 and 2006 preparatory to the 2007 general elections, something that has become a taboo subject which people are either too frightened or ashamed to talk openly about. Such crashes as: a Nigerian Bellview Airlines Boeing 737 airliner shortly after take-off from Lagos on Saturday, 22nd October, 2005, killing all 117 people on board; a Nigerian Sosoliso Airlines DC-9 in Port Harcourt on Saturday, 10th December, 2005, killing all 103 passengers on board, mostly school children going home for Christmas; a Nigerian 18-seater Dornier 228 Air Force transport plane, carrying 15 senior army officers and three crew members, leaving only three survivors with injuries on Sunday, 17th September, 2006 in Benue State; and an ADC airliner with 114 passengers on board after take-off from Abuja on Sunday, 29th October, 2006, killing 96 people. Curiously, all four crashes happened on weekends, and interestingly, once that year's elections were determined, the crashes ceased for the next six years, until the Dana Air passenger plane crash of Sunday, 3rd June, 2012, carrying 153 people in the Agege suburb of Lagos, except for the charter aircraft, Beech craft 1900D, that went missing on Saturday, 15th March, 2008 on its way from Lagos, and the wreckage was found six months later with the corpses of the three persons on board (Punch online newspaper of Friday, 4th October, 2013), a whole six years hiatus. If justice had occupied the driver's seat and politics, a mere passenger on board, the innocents wouldn't have been victims and lives and property would have been spared from what would have meant further attacks.

Finally, sifting through the whole shebang would no gainsaying the fact reveal that by the time these few northern politicians and elite, using the present Boko Haram insurgency to cause catastrophic damage to their region and people, come to comprehend what Jonathan had planned all along, it would be too late to do anything about it. They seem destined to lose again and again, and so should reject the temptation to 'sacrifice long-term maneuverability for the short-lived glories of martyrdom.' It's time to turn the other cheek and show the incumbent President a little respect as well as give him the peace of mind to enjoy his already assured second term. Better still, their settling for 2019 now will go a long way in de-stressing them. Only that will help them detach themselves from their present problems and become more objective in their understanding of the working dynamics of today's Nigeria, a democratic environment that has grown increasingly intolerant of the North's hidebound, reactionary, 'born-to-rule' determinist doctrine.