A call for caution: No wonder the United States of America says Nigeria would break-up in 2015

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Many Nigerians certainly do not know or understand what the objectives of the Boko Haram sect are. Many believe it's a religious grouse and in fact, an onslaught against other parts of the country by the North. But critical thinking, and perhaps, constructive summation of events, so far, have evidently shown that the sect is not particularly about religion, hatred for Christians or Western education, but primarily an alleged secession plan by the North Eastern Nigeria. And this secret arrangement of secession, to a substantial extent, is allegedly known to the United States of America and suspiciously, the current administration of the country; that is if they were not masterminds of the crisis.


The undisputable fact on ground is that the North Eastern Nigeria has secretly discovered oil in the Lake Chad region, and it intends to break away from other parts of the North. Its grouse against the other parts of the North, is that these other parts, according to rumours, have always marginalised them in the country's leadership arrangement, and they have never been considered important in the league of Northern leadership.


The alleged secret plan therefore, is secession from the other parts of the North, and by extension, Nigeria, which to a large extent, has never been profitable to them structurally, politically, economically, and most importantly, religiously. To them, governance and leadership, has been dominated by the other parts, as long as the North existed. And now that they have discovered oil, it's time to take their destiny in their hands, in order not to end-up like their brothers from the Niger-Delta region. But then, it's important to state at this juncture that this onslaught is not by anyway anger against Nigeria, but anger against other parts of the North, including the middle belt. It's believed that with the discovery of oil in the region, it's only through secession that it could be well managed.


Take or leave it, this supposed secret plan might have been hatched with the knowledge of the United States of America, and that could be the reason the US could say boldly that Nigeria would break-up in 2015, and that if it did not split, it would never break-up again.


The point here is that the Boko Haram sect is a formation of the North East, and not the entire North, as erroneously being presumed. It's simply a channel through which the leadership of the North East intends to achieve its suspected secession plan. The blue print is purportedly being targeted towards the 2015 general election. And if one must employ common sense and perhaps, a great deal of critical summations on recent events, at this point; especially now that the prediction of the US seems even more imminent, one will understands that Nigeria is sitting on a keg of gun-power. The doubt therefore, is that towards end of 2014 the Boko Haram sect might intensify their attacks across the nation. This means that the sudden break-in-attack being experienced currently in the troubled region and Nigeria, as a whole, is really not the result of the efforts of the Joint Military Taskforce, but a stunt that is in-line with the plot. These attacks would be so persistent and consistent such that, the Federal Government would have no option than to meet the attacks with equal intensity, if not a mightier tempo of attacks through the JTF. To this development, the North East would then cry out to the Western World for help. It would accuse the Nigerian government of killing innocent civilians, and therefore, committing genocide on its land. The US and its allies, pretentious as usual, would then take the agitation to the United Nations, calling for a probe of the situation in the area. The UN, in its usual unsuspecting and brainwashed manner, would then go down to assess the situation in the North East. And at this point, the North East would demand for secession. And just like it happened in South Sudan and East Timor several years ago, the UN would initiate a referendum and this, no doubt, would give the North East, its desired break-away.


However, many may be wondering what this administration is doing to prevent this evil and satanic plot and perhaps, if it's actually acting in ignorance of the supposed secret plan. I doubt, if the answer to this question is yes, because the indices are quite apparent that this administration is unconsciously or perhaps, deliberately acting in line with the so-called secret plan of the North Eastern Nigeria. If not for anything, at least, this alleged plan aligns and in fact, keys into the Ijaw nation's plan, as well.


This allegation was even made more pronounced, and perhaps, suspicious by the recent letter of former President Olusegun Obasanjo that the present administration is training snipers ahead of the 2015 general election. And this is why people like Alhaji Mujahid Asari-Dokubo, leader of the Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force, and some ex-militant leaders, could say confidently that heads would roll and blood would flow in 2015, if President Goodluck Jonathan was denied another term. Yet, our dear government did nothing to arrest such national threat. All the President had done was to issue a pathetic denial that these ex-militants were not speaking on his behalf. The fact is that both the North East and the Ijaw nation are running a rat-race that only these actors seem to understand perfectly.


Again, the National Chairman of the ruling Peoples' Democratic Party, Bamagar Tukur may also be acting according to this secret script. We must not forget that he is also from the North East, Adamawa State to be precise, and the reasons he never sees the ongoing disintegration of the PDP, the several defection and cross-carpeting of prominent members of the party to the All Progressives' Congress, as a threat, is obvious, and not farfetched. And this is why the APC and other opposition parties, walk entirely in ignorance and in the dark, trying to salvage the country from this looming doom, those who have hijacked the PDP are working towards, and acting out, the North East's supposed secession script. The APC should at this point, sit back for a moment and at least, wonder why the President and in fact, Alhaji Tukur never truly bothered about the overwhelming defection that has submerged the PDP. Certainly, it's obviously not that the APC's ideology or manifesto is so impressive or out of the ordinary, to have provoked or encouraged such exodus from the PDP. Something is definitely not right. And it's only someone with wisdom, who can deduce it.


Nigeria might truly split in 2015, if those with solutions to this looming danger are not consulted. This information may not be too strange to the top hierarchy of the Nigerian Armed Forces, and the Nigerian Police, but in truth, it's very far from the leadership of the North Central, North West and other parts of the North and in fact, Nigerians. This, again, is the reason politicians from these regions are acting ignorantly in preparations, – merging, defecting and cross-carpeting to other potential parties - for the 2015 general election, which may never come.


Finally, the most pitied in all of these crises, is the Igbos. Of all the ethnic groups in Nigeria, their leadership seems the most ignorant in this equation. Worst still, while President Jonathan suddenly pick up fight with the Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi, over the President's alleged plot to use the federal might to covert some oil wells from the state for another Niger Delta state, the Igbo leadership still find it convenient to support the President in his self-serving goal. The allegation by Amaechi that the first lady, Patience Jonathan attempted to run the state on his behalf, and wanted to “macro-manage governance in Rivers State” was certainly an addendum to the real cause of the fight between the President and Amaechi. The major born of contention was the President's alleged unstated plan to under-develop Rivers State at the expense of his home state, Bayelsa, as evidenced by the Zonal Air Force originally earmarked for Rivers by late President Umaru Yar'Adua, but moved to Bayelsa by Jonathan. The same scenario also played out for the Soku oil wells. Amaechi no doubt, is one leader, who understands well the “politricks” of Nigeria and he is acting in the best interest of his people.


The clock is fast ticking, 2015 is just around the corner, and Nigerians hope that the labour of their heroes past will never be in vain.


Georges Macnobleson-Idowu,
Coolwazobiainfo, Lagos.

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Articles by Georges Macnobleson-Idowu